Conditional on LK-99 replicating, will a RTSC be used commercially by 2026?
29
107
550
2026
57%
chance

If there is a significant commercial use of LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor, then this resolves YES. If the original market for LK-99 replication resolves NO, then this resolves N/A.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

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bought Ṁ30 of NO

I expect it will be but 2026 seems too soon. It’s hard to make

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Ansel 2.5 years seems enough to figure out the manufacturing, assuming it’s real.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@Ansel It seems pretty likely to me that better materials in the same class (not just a different dopant) will be discovered and LK-99 won't make it to market.

I think other superconductors that are used commercially are generally not the first of their type discovered.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

@AMS Note the description allows for slight modifications to the recipe.

sold Ṁ28 of NO

@Paul Hmm, good point. I'm not sure how broadly "slight modification" is intended, selling my NO for now.

Would be nice to get clarification on whether e.g. different cuprate SCs count as slight modifications.

predicts YES

@AMS I updated the description.

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