Conditional on LK-99 replicating, will a RTSC be used commercially by 2026?
Plus
29
Ṁ14412026
57%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If there is a significant commercial use of LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor, then this resolves YES. If the original market for LK-99 replication resolves NO, then this resolves N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
<deleted>
@Ansel It seems pretty likely to me that better materials in the same class (not just a different dopant) will be discovered and LK-99 won't make it to market.
I think other superconductors that are used commercially are generally not the first of their type discovered.
@Paul Hmm, good point. I'm not sure how broadly "slight modification" is intended, selling my NO for now.
Would be nice to get clarification on whether e.g. different cuprate SCs count as slight modifications.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the main LK99 market ever reach 50% in 2024?
1% chance
Conditional on any room-temp superconductor being replicated before 2025, will the main LK-99 market resolve YES?
33% chance
Will LK-99 be in commercial use by the end of 2024
2% chance
Will LK-99 be used in a practical commercially available device before 2025?
3% chance
Will LK-99 be used in any commercial application before 2030?
11% chance
Will RTAP materials similar to lk99 be reported by 2025 ?
22% chance
Will Shinsung Delta Tech lose its LK-99 related gains in 2024?
25% chance
Will Shinsung Delta Tech lose its LK-99 related gains before 2026?
61% chance
Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2028?
3% chance
Conditional on LK-99 being replicated, will American Superconductor Company stock trade above $30?
53% chance