This market resolves to the number of whole weeks of active military conflict between the United States and Iran, measured from February 27 (February 28 local time). For simplicity, week boundaries are counted at Friday midnights, Pacific Time. Resolution dates are listed for each category.
On February 28, 2026 (IRST), Israel and the United States launched joint airstrikes on Iran, and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel, US bases, and US allies in the region. President Trump said the war could last “four weeks.” Israel’s military chief said it is moving to the “next phase” after making "2,500 airstrikes." Fighting escalated further when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel after vowing to revenge the attack that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Resolution is based on major news outlets such as CNN, Al Jazeera, AP, and Reuters, along with official US Department of Defense statements. The conflict is considered ongoing while coordinated strikes, missile or drone attacks, or other significant combat operations continue. It ends when a ceasefire is reached, or US and Iran declare a halt to hostilities, which lasts for 4 continuous weeks.
Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the 4-week cessation of hostilities clause:
The resolution week count is measured from the start of the ceasefire/cessation period (not the end)
If a ceasefire/cessation begins but fails before 4 weeks pass, the time from that failed cessation will be added back to the total conflict duration
Update 2026-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding resolution when the US withdraws without a formal ceasefire:
This market tracks direct military actions between the US and Iran only (proxy actions by militias or other groups do not count)
If direct operations cease without a formal ceasefire (e.g. US withdraws), the conflict is considered ended once no direct US–Iran military actions occur for 4 continuous weeks
The end date may be determined retrospectively once it is clear hostilities have not resumed
In ambiguous cases (sporadic incidents, unclear attribution, prolonged lull), resolution will rely on consistent reporting from major outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera)
The standard for ongoing conflict is observable offensive combat operations between the US and Iran
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@bens I just buy Yes on everything at market price every time I remember this market exists. It's an extremely effective strategy as long as the war never ends.
@bens The main issue with my strategy is I just by the same amount of mana on each option so as long as it ends before 110 weeks, I will lose an incredible amount of mana spent on long-shot answers.
@bens I have had a rule in place for almost 3 years now that I never risk having a final profit of worse than -3858 mana on a single market. I've broken that rule here so if the world comes tumbling down I have no one to blame except myself.
@Eliza Why would the war go on for so long? Surely there is a hard deadline on november 3rd, 2026. If democrats take control of the house of representatives, they will cut off funding for the war or curtail war powers, and the administration will be forced to end it. This will probably happen even sooner if there is no end in sight.
@eapache this market tracks observable offensive combat operations between the United States and Iran only. Proxy actions by militias or other groups do not count.
If direct operations cease without a formal ceasefire, such as if the US withdraws, the conflict will be considered ended once no such actions occur for 4 continuous weeks. Because wars rarely end on a clearly identifiable day, the end date may be determined retrospectively once it is clear that hostilities have not resumed.
In ambiguous cases, such as sporadic incidents, unclear attribution, or a prolonged lull in offensive operations, I will rely on consistent reporting from major international news outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, and Al Jazeera to judge whether direct US–Iran hostilities are ongoing or have effectively ceased.
The standard remains observable offensive combat operations between the US and Iran.
Disclaimer: No market like this can be completely free of ambiguity, and I trust fellow Manifolders to take that into account when trading.
@GazDownright Do we think toggling the "clock mode" market setting is appropriate?
Edit: And by that, I mean, I think the clock visual would be useful to get a read on when it would end, but I'm not sure if the "doomsday clock" vibe is tasteful.
@bens It's the bright red countdown timer. You can toggle it in the See Info window of the right market type:
Trump says U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is "very far ahead of schedule"
President Trump told CBS News that he believes the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is "very far ahead of schedule."
"I think the war is very complete, pretty much," he said. "They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense."
@Gabrielle A quick lesson in Trump-ish
This
"I think the war is very complete, pretty much,"
Is him trying to say this
They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense.
With more oomph
@Gabrielle so if you're buying no on 9 weeks, give me at least a glimpse of what that looks like.
@Eliza Trump chickens out, decides to stop bombing Iran, and makes Israel stop bombing Iran. Iran decides that this is good enough and also stop attacking back.
Notably, the stock market seem to think this will happen, it went up fairly significantly once Trump made his statement, and the oil markets mostly recovered.
@Gabrielle Alright, I'm awaiting the next one-upping of the distraction level to pivot again. Will it be Greenland back on the menu or something new and exciting?
@Balasar Yeah, that is what Trump is promising: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/trump-cuba-marco-rubio-fall
@TimothyJohnson5c16 At this pace, by the end of the year the Nobel committee will have to decide if 9 wrongs make a right.
@Eliza Looks like Manifold only has it at 20-25%:
/summersantori/will-trump-attack-cuba-before-july
/Echale1Palo2Mas3Palo/will-the-united-states-conduct-a-mi
/SG2pSQ/the-us-takes-military-action-agains