This market is intended to capture the real-world duration of the war in practice, not to hinge on technicalities or isolated edge cases. Resolution will be guided by the overall state of the conflict as commonly understood, rather than strict literal interpretation of every individual event.
The market resolves to the number of whole weeks of active military conflict between the United States and Iran, measured from February 27 (February 28 local time). For simplicity, week boundaries are counted at Friday midnights, Pacific Time. Resolution dates are listed for each category.
Resolution is based on major news outlets such as CNN, Al Jazeera, AP, and Reuters, along with official statements. The conflict is considered ongoing while coordinated strikes, missile or drone attacks, or other significant combat operations continue. It ends when a ceasefire is reached that lasts for 4 continuous weeks, or US and Iran declare any other type of halt to hostilities that lasts for 4 continuous weeks.
Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the 4-week cessation of hostilities clause:
The resolution week count is measured up until the start of the ceasefire/cessation period (not the end)
If a ceasefire/cessation begins but fails before 4 weeks pass, the time from that failed cessation will be added back to the total conflict duration
Update 2026-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding resolution when the US withdraws without a formal ceasefire:
This market tracks direct military actions between the US and Iran only (proxy actions by militias or other groups do not count)
If direct operations cease without a formal ceasefire (e.g. US withdraws), the conflict is considered ended once no direct US–Iran military actions occur for 4 continuous weeks
The end date may be determined retrospectively once it is clear hostilities have not resumed
In ambiguous cases (sporadic incidents, unclear attribution, prolonged lull), resolution will rely on consistent reporting from major outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera)
The standard for ongoing conflict is observable offensive combat operations between the US and Iran
Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 4-week cessation condition applies to both a ceasefire and a declared halt to hostilities — not just the latter.
Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution does not depend on who exactly declares what or any specific technical definition. The market resolves based on whether the war between the US and Iran has actually ended in practice, as reflected by consistent reporting from major outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera) broadly agreeing that the conflict has effectively ended.
Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the conflict transforms into a civil war in Iran where the US is no longer directly engaged in combat against Iran (e.g. US only provides weapons/intelligence support), the US–Iran war is considered ended. The consistent reporting clause applies if ambiguity arises.
1,000People are also trading
@StockKing have to wait for either 4 weeks of no fighting or fighting after the given date. I think.
@vdb The instant there is a new distraction/storyline somewhere else in the world, the entire market should collapse to zero.
@nathanwei I think people have been burned by past markets that try to operationalize something more than "has it started" and so they're less common now.
@GraemeStuart The quick answer is that if it evolves into a civil war, and is no longer a US-Iran war in the sense we see now, it has ended. Ideally. And if any unforeseen ambiguity arises the consistent reporting clause will come into play.
@Quroe ceasefire “or” halt to hostilities. They announced it as “ceasefire”, doesn’t it already hit one of the “or” conditions?
@Mochi Oh, I thought it was:
It ends when
(a ceasefire is reached
OR
US and Iran declare a halt to hostilities)
which lasts for 4 continuous weeks.
But it sounds like you are reading it as:
It ends when
(a ceasefire is reached)
OR
(US and Iran declare a halt to hostilities, which lasts for 4 continuous weeks)
Is that what you are asking about?
@Eliza Yes, and I think this is a pretty logical understanding since the comma was after “a ceasefire is reached”, I would probably read it as the former if the sentence was “It ends when a ceasefire is reached or US and Iran declare a halt to hostilities, which lasts for 4 continuous weeks.”
@GazDownright how does it work if they don’t extend and have another 3 day war, and then ceasefire for good, do the 3 days get added back to today?
@GazDownright the current ceasefire is for 2 weeks. I think there’s a high chance they extend it, but if they don’t extend the ceasefire, how does this market work for April 11th strike?
@Quroe Is that an inclusive or exclusive 'and'? Must both the U.s. and Iran declare an end to hostilities? What counts as a declaration? The president of the u.s. saying so? The president of iran? Some department or other?
@Mochi For this market the war is treated as ongoing until 4 continuous weeks of ceasefire. If the ceasefire is ended or not extended, the clock resets and the paused period still counts toward the total duration.
@DavidAttenborough i believe this is already covered by the criteria. The market is less about who exactly declares what, and more about whether the war between the US and Iran has actually ended in practice. With the aforementioned criterion of 4 continuous weeks.
In ambiguous cases, I’ll rely on how major outlets consistently describe the state of the war, i.e., whether there is broad agreement that it has effectively ended, rather than any single statement or technical definition.