When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
24
Ṁ655Ṁ3k2031
99%
2026
31%
2027
25%
2028
25%
2029
Each of these options resolves either: at the end of the year as NO, or YES if the US is at war with Iran at any point during the year.
I won't bet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold?
Will a full-scale military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran resume by May 31, 2026?
45% chance
Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
23% chance
When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)
Will the US-Israel vs Iran conflict escalate into direct military strikes on Iranian soil by end of 2026?
55% chance
Will the US-Iran ceasefire be formally declared ended by US or Iran before July 31, 2026?
37% chance
Is Iran a forever war?
9% chance
Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026?
47% chance
When will Iran-US conflict end?
6/20/26
People are also trading
Related questions
How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold?
Will a full-scale military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran resume by May 31, 2026?
45% chance
Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
23% chance
When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)
Will the US-Israel vs Iran conflict escalate into direct military strikes on Iranian soil by end of 2026?
55% chance
Will the US-Iran ceasefire be formally declared ended by US or Iran before July 31, 2026?
37% chance
Is Iran a forever war?
9% chance
Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026?
47% chance
When will Iran-US conflict end?
6/20/26