Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on when sustained large-scale anti-government protests, strikes, and societal shutdown in Iran ends. The market resolves YES on the date when ALL of these are met:

• Demonstrations across multiple provinces have largely ended (fewer than 5% of the scale seen in early January 2026)

• Street protests are no longer occurring regularly in major cities

• Protest-related strikes and shop closures have substantially diminished

• Internet is restored or partially restored

• Martial law is over/people can walk around across the country without being murdered by militias or the government

• People are living their lives, working, walking around, etc.

Resolution will be determined by reports from credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) and human rights monitoring organizations (HRANA, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch). If protests return after a peaceful period of up to 1 month, I will consider it as a continuation (protest didn't end). Longer than thatbwill only count as a continuation if they're even larger than what we have seen, with the same objectives. If ambiguity exists about whether protests have truly ended versus temporarily paused, the market creator will use common sense to determine if the movement has fundamentally concluded.

If the internet is partially restored, such as an internet with strong firewalls, mostly closed off, but still allowing communication inside the country, it can resolve as yes.

Background

Demonstrations erupted across multiple cities in Iran beginning December 28, 2025, described as the largest uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Initially sparked by frustration over record-high inflation, food prices, and currency depreciation, the protests quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the current regime. As of January 9, millions took to the streets in protests across all 31 provinces.

The ensuing crackdown, carried out under Ali Khamenei's direct order for live fire on protesters, resulted in massacres that left tens of thousands of protesters dead. The security force crackdown on the demonstrations has killed at least 2,586, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency and leaked Iranian officials, up to 12k, according to unverified claims. At least 18,137 individuals have been arrested.

Although largely leaderless, the protests escalated on January 8 following calls for protests and general strikes by Reza Pahlavi, Crown Prince of Iran. The Iranian government has cut off Internet access and telephone services in an attempt to prevent protesters from organising.

Considerations

Gulf officials believe that while the protests are more intense than uprisings of the recent past, the Iranian leadership will likely prevail. However, some analysts note a sense of frustration and exhaustion among people in Iran that has "reached a boiling point," with one economist anticipating significant change. The outcome remains highly uncertain given the scale of the crackdown, international involvement, and the regime's demonstrated capacity for sustained repression. The purpose of this market is to estimate when this protest will end, and also the people's resistance to their government, vulnerabilities that could either lead to regime collapse, civil wars, brutal crackdown, reform , or even open doors to foreign intervention.