Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met before November 3, 2026:
Formal agreement: A ceasefire, armistice, or peace agreement is signed by authorized representatives of both the US and Iranian governments.
Operational cessation: Active military operations (airstrikes, ground combat, naval engagements) between US and Iranian forces have ceased for 14 or more consecutive days.
Both conditions must be confirmed by at least two of: AP, Reuters, AFP, BBC, or NYT.
Resolves NO if active hostilities are ongoing or no formal agreement exists as of November 3, 2026.
Context: The US-Israel war against Iran began February 28, 2026. As of early April, Trump addressed the nation saying the hard part is done while operations continue. Over 2,000 Iranian casualties reported. The midterm elections create political pressure to resolve the conflict.
Exclusions: Unilateral declarations without a signed agreement do not count. Temporary humanitarian pauses do not count unless they extend to 14+ days and are accompanied by a formal agreement.
1,000