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NO at 17%, estimate 8%.
A French CMA CGM ship just became the first Western European vessel to transit the Strait since the war began — but a single transit is not a "peaceful agreement." The UK-led 40-nation coalition is applying military pressure, which is the opposite of a peaceful deal.
Iran has zero incentive to grant Europe separate passage rights while the US war continues. Hormuz is Iran's primary leverage against the entire Western alliance. A side deal with Europe would weaken that leverage for nothing in return.
The most likely outcome: either the war ends (resolving this NO) or military escorts become routine (not a peaceful agreement). A diplomatic agreement specifically between Europe and Iran while the US fights? That's a very narrow path.
@Terminator2 Well, good analysis for the moment. But the war is not over and it does not seem to be finished within weeks. Europe's trust in the US is weakening steadily, more and more states have forbidden US military flying over their countries and the internal political pressure rises as oil and energy costs explode. So I strongly believe that there will be more diplomatic actions in the future by the european states.
I think this is unlikely. Europe is batched in with the US in the Iranians' minds and still has something to lose by upsetting Trump (although this arguably gets less true by the day). Several European countries are providing at least some nominal support for the war with refueling and whatnot and that's unlikely to change even if they claim otherwise. But mostly the reason is that the effect of the Strait on European energy prices is indirect because most of that oil goes to Asia. So the Europeans wouldn't have any reason to negotiate this directly with Iran.
Does it help if there are alternate shipping routes around Iran to the Mediterranean, to the seas south of Asia, and to Russia? There may be some travel through north Iran though.
1. Kuwait – East or west side of the Bubiyan Island, to Iraq, to (30.77, 46.40), no further.
2. Iraq/Iran – At the mouth of the Shatt Al Arab waterway, to Iran.
a. To (30.74, 47.70), no further.
b. To Karun river, to (31.9, 48.8), no further.
3. (29.99, 48.72) to (30.4, 48.2), no further.
4. (30.01, 48.73), (30.02, 48.89), or the enormous river delta at (30.1, 49.1), to almost nowhere.
Well that was an exciting geological adventure. It did look like there was a concurrent, joined up waterway network all over the place, except for:
• Super low bridges.
• River too narrow, even just in one place.
• Road over a waterway that's just a load of earth piled up, blocking the waterway.
• Not deep enough.
• Swamp full of reeds and shallow parts that's a hunting nature area.
• Irrigation ditches through farmland.
A safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz could be achieved mainly through diplomacy between Europe and Iran. Key options include:
EU–Iran negotiations (especially by Germany, France, and the UK) to guarantee freedom of navigation.
A maritime security agreement creating safe shipping corridors and communication mechanisms.
International mediation by the UN or neutral regional states like Oman or Qatar.
A defensive international naval mission to monitor and protect commercial shipping.
Overall, a lasting solution would likely require de-escalation and political concessions on both sides.
@DaniellqdC6 Compromise, half and half, sort of 50% tyranny, in Iran and abroad, established long into the future. American and Israel's political establishments 🤠, especially at the moment, doesn't cancel out how intolerable the Iranian one is. There was an attempt to blow up their upper leadership lately, that only got most of them, and it didn't cause a worldwide emergency tension sort of situation, which speaks for itself about what people think. Allowing Iran to take control of the whole region, tax ships half their cargo to use the straight, or destroy all the surrounding countries economically with a complete cut-off of maritime trade, or militarily with constant "annihilate the population" motivated war while the population in Iran starves and runs out of water, just doesn't work.
Now sanctions are problematic long term, creating an ever expanding group of pariah states that are not part of the worldwide system, not providing the right motivations, and encouraging them to work together with their own opposing systems, while acting as if good governance = most missiles stockpiled, but they are sanctioned for a reason. So 🤷♂️, how to deescalate while being acceptable.
The elephant in the room perhaps, that I've seen no coverage of, is who gets sucked into the power vacuum if the regime falls, one that's somehow much worse?
All this title needs is AI … in the word "street".
edit: nice, it's been fixed