Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any time between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2026, there is an initiation of a full-scale military conflict between the United States and Iran, or between Israel and Iran.

For the purposes of this market, "full-scale military conflict" is defined as a sustained, direct, state-on-state conventional military engagement involving significant deployment of regular armed forces (e.g., large-scale air strikes, naval battles, or ground incursions) exceeding the scope of previous limited retaliatory strikes, cyber warfare, or covert operations.

This market will resolve based on reporting from credible international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Bloomberg) confirming such an escalation. If no such event occurs by the specified date, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States have remained elevated for years, characterized by a "shadow war" involving regional proxies, targeted strikes, and cyber incidents. Definitions of "full-scale conflict" are subject to interpretation, as historical escalations have often stopped short of sustained, high-intensity conventional war. Traders should note that geopolitical analysts frequently monitor official statements from the White House, the Iranian Supreme Leader’s office, and the Israeli Prime Minister's office for indications of significant shifts in military posture.

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