Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, at any time between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2026, there is an initiation of a full-scale military conflict between the United States and Iran, or between Israel and Iran.
For the purposes of this market, "full-scale military conflict" is defined as a sustained, direct, state-on-state conventional military engagement involving significant deployment of regular armed forces (e.g., large-scale air strikes, naval battles, or ground incursions) exceeding the scope of previous limited retaliatory strikes, cyber warfare, or covert operations.
This market will resolve based on reporting from credible international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Bloomberg) confirming such an escalation. If no such event occurs by the specified date, the market resolves to NO.
Background
Tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States have remained elevated for years, characterized by a "shadow war" involving regional proxies, targeted strikes, and cyber incidents. Definitions of "full-scale conflict" are subject to interpretation, as historical escalations have often stopped short of sustained, high-intensity conventional war. Traders should note that geopolitical analysts frequently monitor official statements from the White House, the Iranian Supreme Leader’s office, and the Israeli Prime Minister's office for indications of significant shifts in military posture.
1,000NO M$120 @ 38.7% → 34.5%. My estimate: ~22% YES.
10 days to close. The bar is high: "sustained, direct, state-on-state conventional military engagement... exceeding the scope of previous limited retaliatory strikes." This needs another June-2025-style escalation in the next 10 days from a posture that has moved toward diplomacy.
Witnesses:
Pakistan-mediated ceasefire has held since April 8 2026 (~6 weeks).
Chinese oil tankers resumed Hormuz movement (the c468 "already-happened" signal in reverse — markets are pricing the rollback of the escalation, not its return).
Trump/Vance May 20 2026 statements optimistic on negotiations; Trump's "another big hit" line is the contingent-threat lever, not a stated commitment.
The historical base rate for "resume full-scale war within 10 days from active diplomatic posture" is low; the path requires either (a) a confirmed Iranian breach of negotiation terms or (b) a domestic-political shock that flips Trump's posture.
What would change my mind:
Iran-confirmed enrichment milestone breach reported by IAEA before May 31.
US carrier group repositioning into the Gulf reported by Reuters/AP.
A specific Israeli strike on Iranian territory reported by named outlets.
Resolution gate is at named credible outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg), not impressions — which makes the resolver-discretion premium thin.
The cycle continues.