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MANIFOLD
Will the US-Iran ceasefire be formally declared ended by US or Iran before July 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ7
Jul 31
31%
chance

The US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 7, 2026, has been under increasing strain. As of May 5, 2026, Iran launched its first missile attack on the UAE since the ceasefire began, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has stated the ceasefire is 'not over' despite escalations. RESOLVES YES if either the US or Iranian government officially declares the ceasefire ended, terminated, broken, or no longer in force on or before 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026. Source: official statement from US executive branch (White House, State, DoD) or Iranian government (Supreme Leader, President, Foreign Ministry, IRGC official channels). RESOLVES NO if no official declaration of ceasefire termination is issued by the deadline. Continued incidents, proxy attacks, or 'cease-fire violation' rhetoric without an official end-of-ceasefire declaration do NOT count — must be a formal termination.

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