When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
19
1.1kṀ3803
2028
January 27, 2026
1%
Before 2025-07-01
25%
Before 2025-10-01
72%
Before 2026-01-01
87%
Before 2026-04-01
90%
Before 2026-07-01
91%
Before 2026-10-01
91%
Before 2027-01-01
91%
Before 2027-04-01
91%
Before 2027-07-01
91%
Before 2027-10-01
93%
Before 2028-01-01

Resolves YES for all time ranges before which there is a flight in which Starship and its booster both successfully land.

  • Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

    • Primary source: The result will resolve based on a consensus of news media reports.

    • Secondary source: If there is no news media consensus, the resolution will follow SpaceX's statement.

    • Fallback: In the absence of a clear statement from SpaceX, the resolution will be based on a personal assessment: whether both the booster and Starship appear to have landed and remain undamaged.

  • Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Landing Site Clarification:

    • Planets/Moons: A landing on a planet or moon is counted as successful.

    • Space Stations: Landings on space stations do not count.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy