When will Starship successfully land for the first time?

1.1kṀ6984

2028

October 1, 2026

ALL

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2026-01-01

18%

Before 2026-04-01

50%

Before 2026-07-01

59%

Before 2026-10-01

73%

Before 2027-01-01

82%

Before 2027-04-01

86%

Before 2027-07-01

88%

Before 2027-10-01

91%

Before 2028-01-01

Resolves YES for all time ranges before which there is a flight in which Starship and its booster both successfully land.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
- Primary source: The result will resolve based on a consensus of news media reports.
- Secondary source: If there is no news media consensus, the resolution will follow SpaceX's statement.
- Fallback: In the absence of a clear statement from SpaceX, the resolution will be based on a personal assessment: whether both the booster and Starship appear to have landed and remain undamaged.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Landing Site Clarification:
- Planets/Moons: A landing on a planet or moon is counted as successful.
- Space Stations: Landings on space stations do not count.

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How do I know if it was a successful landing?

@Eliza If there is a consensus of news media, resolves according to that. If there’s no news media consensus, it resolves according to SpaceX. If SpaceX is unclear or does not state either way, it resolves based on my personal assessment, which will roughly be “Does the booster and Starship both look like they landed and were undamaged”.