What will the generic ballot be on election day 2026, per Silver Bulletin/Nate Silver?
As of 2025-01-22, the current result would be D+5.3.
Resolves based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls as of 00:00 Eastern Time on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, or preferably a specific number reported by Silver Bulletin as the election day generic ballot. Based on the "Net Support" metric.
1,000People are also trading
As a side note, this market is explicitly a test, and it's not particularly well structured (eg. the boxes are far too large to actually predict a specific number). I will definitely run it as stated, but I'd love it if other people could make other markets that are like this but better.
@Jack1 Smaller boxes is the most obvious thing, yes. Beyond that, I don’t recall exactly what I was thinking at the time, other than that I think I was rushed at the time and just wanted to put a market out using the new mechanism.