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MANIFOLD
What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
6
Ṁ1kṀ5k
Nov 3
1%
Higher than R+10.0
2%
R+5.1 - R+10.0
3%
R+0.1 - R+5.0
15%
D+0 - D+5.0
61%
D+5.1 - D+10.0
14%
D+10.1 - D+15.0
4%
Higher than D+15.0

What will the generic ballot be on election day 2026, per Silver Bulletin/Nate Silver?

As of 2025-01-22, the current result would be D+5.3.

Resolves based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls as of 00:00 Eastern Time on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, or preferably a specific number reported by Silver Bulletin as the election day generic ballot. Based on the "Net Support" metric.

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As a side note, this market is explicitly a test, and it's not particularly well structured (eg. the boxes are far too large to actually predict a specific number). I will definitely run it as stated, but I'd love it if other people could make other markets that are like this but better.

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/Jack1/which-democratic-senate-candidates

This market also uses Nate silver polling averages

As a side note, this market is explicitly a test, and it's not particularly well structured (eg. the boxes are far too large to actually predict a specific number). I will definitely run it as stated, but I'd love it if other people could make other markets that are like this but better.

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