Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Question

I will add new ballot measure strikes as they meet the requirements to appear on the ballot, and rename them once their ballot name and number are available.

If a listed measure ends up not being on the ballot I will resolve that strike to NO, though I will try not to list any measures I am not reasonably confident will end up on the ballot.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment, followed by Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure and Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Apr 21, 2026).

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