Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?
11
αΉ13kαΉ24kNov 17
65%
Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative
64%
Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment
44%
Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure
28%
Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative
16%
Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative
6%
Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment
I will add new ballot measure strikes as they meet the requirements to appear on the ballot, and rename them once their ballot name and number are available.
If a listed measure ends up not being on the ballot I will resolve that strike to NO, though I will try not to list any measures I am not reasonably confident will end up on the ballot.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will San Francisco voters pass the "reopen the Great Highway" ballot measure in 2026
21% chance
If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
71% chance
Will there be an AI ballot measure in California in 2026?
38% chance
Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
30% chance
California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
Which California House Districts will Democrats win in the 2026 Midterms?
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?
29% chance
Who will be elected governor of California in 2026?
Will California independence be voted on in 2026?
10% chance