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Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?
17
Ṁ13kṀ40k
Nov 17
80%
Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative
35%
Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment
33%
Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure
32%
Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative
15%
Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative
5%
Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

I will add new ballot measure strikes as they meet the requirements to appear on the ballot, and rename them once their ballot name and number are available.

If a listed measure ends up not being on the ballot I will resolve that strike to NO, though I will try not to list any measures I am not reasonably confident will end up on the ballot.

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This didn't have all ballot measures so I made my own.

/mitchellreynolds/which-nov-2026-california-ballot-pr

I have unresolved the N/A'd options as this market is now referenced on our official elections map. I will take ownership of this market.

@zax I hope you understand. FWIW I am saddened to hear that you are no longer interested in using Manifold, and if you would like to delete/anonymise your account we can facilitate that (to prevent notifications, emails, etc.) but I hope you will stay with us. Thank you very much for your many contributions to the site, and for this market specifically!

I don't mind you taking over, though you should probably change the market so that the options reflect what appears on the actual ballot (props 1-5, 37-45, with some overlap with the existing options).

I haven't decided what I want done with my Manifold account, and it is somewhat conditional on future events, but I appreciate the offer to be helpful.

The Caroline Ellison thing was one thing, but this Worst Boyfriend Ever saga is just gross. I feel myself pretty disgusted with Austin Chen and don't want to have to think about Manifold ever. I am resolving all my markets to N/A and leaving.

@zax Two-Thirds Special Taxes and Charter City Transfer Tax initiative (25-0006A1) got replaced by ACA 22 / Proposition 43 which is a legasilative measure but also kinda different from this. I'm pretty sure this should just resolve this option to 0% but I wanted to check with you