What will happen before election day befor the midterms in 2026? The rules for specific markets are in the comments.
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Should there be a dispute, the rules in the comments or those that have been otherwise provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all be-all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
I will issue a full analysis of my reasoning for resolving a market within 24 hours after I resolve it. If you are dissatisfied with a resolution, please wait for the full analysis, and then leave a comment or message me before leaving a bad review of my resolution.
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On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
Answers must have clear criteria for resolving
No meta markets will be allowed (i.e. more than 10 answers resolved to "yes")
I will remain the decision-maker on the resolution of all markets. Any statement to the contrary in a market title will be removed.
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" or "No" that answer will resolve N/A
I will message the creator of a market that I do not believe conforms with rule number two on adding answers (that all answers must have clear criteria for resolving) and they will have 24 hours to provide a clear criteria for resolving (I will help create criteria) or else their submission will be N/A'ed. If there is a market that is possibly subject to N/A I will make that clear once I give the 24 hour notice to the creator of the market.
Please note: that given the somewhat ambiguous of some markets, I will not trade on this market.
Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer about Netanyahu will resolve Yes if the Knesset votes to appoint someone other than Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister.
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@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes to appoint someone other than Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if a law is passed that repeals the District of Columbia Home Rule Act
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if a law or set of laws is passed that includes all of the provisions that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has, as defined by the Congressional Research Service summary of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. That summary can be seen here:
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if a law or set of laws is passed that includes all of the provisions that the SAVE Act has, as defined by the Congressional Research Service summary of the SAVE Act. That summary can be seen here: https://web.archive.org/web/20260612100026/https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture to a majority for all legislative action whose threshold for cloture at the time the market was created is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn.
@AaronSimansky I take it Pituffik counts for the Greenland option?
This has been answered now in your comment.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve yes if the monarch of the United Kingdom officially appointed someone other than Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolve to yes if any justice of the Supreme Court states that they will retire.
@AaronSimansky Will the United States have taken steps that place Greenland or part of it under U.S. governing authority?
For purposes of this market, “part of Greenland” means a defined geographic area of Greenlandic land territory together with the civilian population ordinarily residing there. The exercise of authority limited solely to any of the following does not, by itself, constitute being “in charge of part of Greenland”:
Airspace, territorial waters, exclusive economic zones, or maritime navigation
Ports, harbors, or customs facilities absent broader civil governance of the surrounding land area
Security zones, exclusion zones, or access controls established solely for military or diplomatic purposes
Regulatory, licensing, or enforcement actions that do not involve general civil governance of a resident population
To qualify for a “Yes” resolution, a U.S. governing authority must extend to civilian life within a terrestrial area, such as through the administration of civil law, courts, policing, taxation, or public services for residents of that area.
Qualifying Conditions for a “Yes” resolution
The market resolves “Yes” if there is any formal action by the U.S. federal government that:
Creates a governing authority (civilian, military, colonial, or transitional) for part of Greenland under U.S. authority, and
Claims (explicitly or implicitly) and in some way exercises governing power over part of Greenland or its residents that fully displaces Danish or Greenlandic governing power (e.g., courts, taxation, civil administration, or law enforcement that is solely answerable to the authority of the United States).
This includes but is not limited to:
Creation of a U.S. territory of Greenland
Congressional or executive establishment of a provisional civilian administration
Appointment of U.S. officials to govern Greenlandic civil affairs
Military occupation accompanied by governance of civilian life
Suspension or replacement of Danish or Greenlandic civil authority by U.S. command
Military administration that regulates civil law, courts, or governance
This market will resolve to yes if the above criteria are met, regardless of whether these criteria are achieved consensually or non-consensually.
The existence, expansion, or operation of U.S. diplomatic missions, consulates, military bases, or other U.S. facilities in Greenland does not constitute the United States being “in charge of Greenland” for purposes of this market. Only actions asserting or exercising general governance authority over part of Greenland or its residents as such, rather than authority arising from voluntary employment or presence on U.S. facilities, may qualify for a YES resolution.
@AaronSimansky If the government is shut down at any 10:00 AM ET before Election Day for the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to YES.
The current status of government opening is available here.
The market will resolve YES if there is a notice that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down between market creation and 11/2/2026 at 10:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations. Notices of a lapse in appropriations resulting in emergency furloughs or impacted government operations will lead to a resolution of YES. Notices of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not lead to a resolution of YES.
@AaronSimansky This market will resolved yes if before election day for the midterms any section of the 25th amendment is invoked.