What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)

MANIFOLD

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Nov 4

97%

Trump is incumbent president

93%

Democrats win back the house majority

91%

Abdul El Sayed wins Michigan senate seat

90%

Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker

86%

US House Speaker elected on first ballot

82%

An incumbent senator loses general election

71%

GOP and MAGA attempts to overturn 2026 midterm election

69%

Democrats win both chamber of congress

57%

Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points

54%

Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader

50%

Blue wave in 2026 midterms election

43%

The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in a 2026 midterm election

35%

An Incumbent governor loses general election

31%

2026 midterm election not free and fair

28%

Republicans in polls and markets rise back up and retakes the lead

18%

2026 midterms elections gets tilted in GOP ruling party's favor

18%

Republicans vote in highest turnout numbers and win the midterms

17%

Another Jan 6-style capitol attack

17%

October surprises help Republicans win house majority and midterms

17%

Red wave in 2026 midterm elections

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve individually to YES or NO (or N/A if the outcome is completely unverifiable or a precondition is unmet) based on official election results, leadership votes, and political outcomes of the 2026 US midterm elections and subsequent congressional organization.

Feel free to add your own markets. I suggest to add answers that have no markets yet.

US Politics

Politics

Elections

2026 US Congressional Elections

2026 US Election

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