What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
15
Ṁ550Ṁ754Nov 4
97%
Trump is incumbent president
91%
Democrats win back the house majority
90%
Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker
82%
An incumbent senator loses general election
74%
US House Speaker elected on first ballot
73%
Abdul El Sayed wins Michigan senate seat
62%
Democrats win both chamber of congress
50%
October surprises help Republicans win house majority and midterms
46%
Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader
46%
Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points
43%
The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in a 2026 midterm election
38%
Republicans in polls and markets rise back up and retakes the lead
35%
An Incumbent governor loses general election
24%
Republicans vote in highest turnout numbers and win the midterms
24%
2026 midterms elections gets tilted in GOP ruling party's favor
13%
Zach Lahn wins 2026 Iowa governor election
11%
Republicans have high turnout of voters and win the house
7%
Republicans win house majority control
5%
Democratic house victory gets stolen and tilted to GOP ruling favor
This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve individually to YES or NO (or N/A if the outcome is completely unverifiable or a precondition is unmet) based on official election results, leadership votes, and political outcomes of the 2026 US midterm elections and subsequent congressional organization.
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