What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
8
Ṁ225Ṁ200Nov 4
95%
Trump is incumbent president
75%
An incumbent senator loses general election
74%
US House Speaker elected on first ballot
68%
Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker
46%
Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points
43%
Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader
43%
Democrats win both chamber of congress
43%
The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in an election in the 2026 midterms
35%
An Incumbent governor loses general election
This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve individually to YES or NO (or N/A if the outcome is completely unverifiable or a precondition is unmet) based on official election results, leadership votes, and political outcomes of the 2026 US midterm elections and subsequent congressional organization.
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