What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
4
Ṁ225Ṁ50Nov 4
56%
An incumbent senator loses general election
43%
Hakeem Jeffries becomes house speaker
43%
Trump is incumbent president
43%
Chuck Schumer becomes senate majority leader
43%
An Incumbent governor loses general election
43%
Democrats win both chamber of congress
43%
The eventual 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee is a winner in an election in the 2026 midterms
43%
US House Speaker elected on first ballot
43%
Democrats win house general ballot by at least 7 percentage points
This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve individually to YES or NO (or N/A if the outcome is completely unverifiable or a precondition is unmet) based on official election results, leadership votes, and political outcomes of the 2026 US midterm elections and subsequent congressional organization.
Feel free to add your own markets. I suggest to add answers that have no markets yet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
42% chance
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?
Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]
37% chance
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
What will happen before election day for the 2026 midterms? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read the rules)