Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
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Plus
10
แน€3983
2027
8%
D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta
9%
R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta
31%
D President, R Senate, R House
5%
D President, D Senate, R House
13%
D President, R Senate, D House
9%
R Pres, D Senate, D House
22%
R President, R Senate, D House
3%
R President, D Senate, R House
  • Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."

  • [Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."

  • This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.

  • President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.

  • House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.

    • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.

    • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

  • Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.

    • If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.

    • If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

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my rough probs conditioned on each candidate winning (pres-senate-house):

Kamala:

D R R 75% (~37.5 unconditional)

D D R 5% (2.5)

D R D 15% (7.5)

D D D 5% (2.5)

Trump:

R D D 25% (12.5)

R D R 5% (2.5)

R R D 50% (25)

R R R 20% (10)