Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."
[Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."
This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.
President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.
House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
1,000People are also trading
@AshDorsey I didn't know much about the senate map but midterms frequently are "wave" elections against the incumbent party (i.e. 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018). "Wave" elections have been known to cause a party to outperform expectations in the Senate and win somewhere they usually wouldn't win (2006 and 2020 are examples that come to mind). I think the conventional wisdom on the Senate tends to overrate structural factors (like how many of the party's seats are up for election, red and blue states) and underrate the overall national political climate, at least to a degree.
@WilliamDewey TX, IA, AK, GA, MN would require a 11 point swing from the 2024 Donald Trump election results, but that is seeming more and more possible every day.
My biggest high-level disagreement with the market (or at least with the market before I traded) is that I think that there's a 75% chance that the House will be controlled by the opposite party of the president. The House is very likely to be close in 2024 and there's been a swing in the House against the incumbent party in nearly all recent midterm elections.