Which Democratic senate candidates will lead in the Nate Silver polling average on election day?

Question

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model

on election day 2026 after the polls are closed, I will check Nate Silvers election poll model to resolve this market. If the Democratic candidate in the race is leading, their answer will resolve yes. If they are losing, resolves no.

If the Democratic candidate is tied, resolves no.

Resolves according to the Democratic candidate. If one is replaced, resolves according to the new one.  The names are as a guide only, except Dan Osborn, where he is the intended name and won’t be replaced.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Minnesota - Penny Flanagan, followed by North Carolina - Roy Cooper and Georgia - Jon Ossoff are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Sep 6, 2026).

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