Tracks the Democratic percentage in VoteHub’s published time-weighted 2026 generic-ballot polling average. This is the percentage choosing Democratic—not the Democratic-minus-Republican margin, a two-party-normalized share, a forecast, or the election result.
Manifold checks VoteHub every 5 minutes and updates the oracle whenever VoteHub’s value changes. Historical chart points come from VoteHub’s published daily series.
If no sufficiently fresh and valid value can be published for 30 hours, trading pauses.
After November 3, 2026, this market will be manually settled at the latest accepted VoteHub Democratic-share value. It does not settle based on the election result.
Source: https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026
Licensed under CC BY 4.0.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ27,061 | |
| 2 | Ṁ9,490 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3,520 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,525 | |
| 5 | Ṁ303 |
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@traders Thank you for trading! This market has been closed out at the current price, per the criteria.
We will hopefully get another one up and running soon for 2028; maybe I'll do the R share next time to mix things up? Maybe re-label the buttons more like a versus market?
I really like the idea of having an easy way to directionally support a side without having to dig through specific races. Any feedback is appreciated!
@Web3ICP because of undecideds, it would be bascailly free money to ‘long’
Currently the average is about 47-41. Third parties are not going to get 12%
@Jack1 I hope Dems do well. I expect they will. But, I don’t know how many rabbits can be pulled out of a hat judicially and electorally. We’ll see.