Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each answer resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on the outcomes of the United States midterm elections on November 3, 2026.

Resolutions will be determined using official state election certifications and consensus projections from major news networks, primarily the Associated Press (AP).

Specific Rules for Current Options:

• "Republicans win control of the U.S. House of Representatives" / "Democrats win control of the U.S. House of Representatives": Resolves to YES for whichever party wins at least 218 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives for the 110th United States Congress. The other option will resolve to NO. Representatives who are independent or from third parties will be counted toward the party they caucus with for the purpose of determining control.

• "The party of the sitting President loses/gains seats...": As of November 3, 2026, the sitting President is Republican Donald Trump. Thus, "the party of the sitting President" refers to the Republican Party (GOP).

  • Losing seats in both the House and Senate resolves to YES if the GOP's final seat count in both chambers is lower than their seat count immediately prior to the election on November 3, 2026.

  • Gaining seats in the House resolves to YES if the GOP's final seat count in the House is higher than their seat count immediately prior to November 3, 2026.

• "Control of the House remains undecided on election night due to close margins": Resolves to YES if the Associated Press (AP) has not projected a 218-seat majority for either party by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

General Rule for Added Options: Since anyone can add options to this market, newly added choices will be resolved by the creator according to official election statistics and major news media consensus. If an option is ambiguous, subjective, or impossible to verify objectively, it will resolve to N/A.

Background

The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. They will take place two years into the second term of President Donald Trump. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 Class II U.S. Senate seats (plus any special elections) are up for election. These races will determine which party controls the 110th United States Congress. Historically, the sitting president's party tends to face headwinds and lose seats during midterm cycles, making the battle for both chambers highly competitive.