Will a nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2024?
29
3.5k
2025
3%
chance

Resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated and causes at least 1 fatality, after September 1, 2023 and before January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO.

  • The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.

  • Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.

  • Detonation here means nuclear explosion. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.

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