Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

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Jan 1

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Resolution will be based on this Wikipedia page or its successor, if possible. If it significantly changes criteria or ceases to update, I will do my best to resolve based on other credible reporting and the same criteria.

Major war is defined as 10,000 or more combat-related deaths in current or previous year.

Nuclear powers will include the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.

The conflict in question must not currently be listed on the "major wars" section of the page in question, as of question creation. That list is the Myanmar conflict, Arab-Israeli conflict, Insurgency in the Maghreb, Russo-Ukrainian War, and Sudanese civil war.

UTC time.

Previously: /EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv

Update 2026-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 2026 Iran War does not count for resolution because of how Wikipedia is listing it (grouped under the existing Arab-Israeli conflict entry, which was already listed as a major war at question creation).

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@spiderduckpig what happened?

@capybara Somalia just became a new major war, and America is listed as an intervening power. The criteria is very permissive; as the creator mentioned in the comments, American involvement is sufficient.

The US has been involved in Somalia since the 90s and has provided significant military aid to the Ethiopians. This escalation has dramatically ramped up during the second Trump administration, with 124 official airstrikes in 2025 and at least 86 YTD; Amnesty International says the real number is likely much higher.

sold Ṁ68 NO

@spiderduckpig ah I see. Need to compare previous to current page version.

If Iran becomes a nuclear power before the end of 2026, will it count?

@moobunny nuclear power is shorthand for the list in the description. The list of countries that count doesn't change. That is, you could read it as "nuclear power as of question creation".

@EvanDaniel I mean, the Iran war involves the US and Israel, two nuclear powers, so wouldn't that conflict turning into a major war (according to wikipedia) be enough?

@HenriConfucius Of course. US or Israel involvement counts, Iranian involvement is not sufficient.

@EvanDaniel The Arab-Israeli conflicts were already listed as a major conflict at question creation, and the 2026 war has since been added to it.

Edit: I think I misread the table.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@EvanDaniel Has the 2026 Iran War been excluded from resolving this question by superficial display choices on Wikipedia?

@EliG I think it doesn't count because of how Wikipedia is listing it. In retrospect I'm not sure I like this format and might try to do something different in the future. I'm not exactly sure what, though, or what boundary is most interesting to draw.