Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2024?

#Wars #Nuclear Risk #Nuclear War #Nuclear War 2024

141

Ṁ4.2k

Ṁ1.5k

2025

ALL

0.4%

United States

1.8%

Russia

0.6%

United Kingdom

0.8%

France

1.1%

China

0.8%

India

1.1%

Pakistan

1.2%

North Korea

0.7%

Israel

0.9%

[Other country not listed above]

1.3%

[Non-state actor]

0.9%

[Unattributed as of close time]

Tests, accidental detonations, and peaceful nuclear explosions are not included. During 2024, UTC time.

The weapon must detonate to be included.

This question is a draft; exact details of edge cases are still being worked out. Suggestions and discussion of potential edge cases are very welcome. Hopefully those can be nailed down in the next couple of days and it won't matter much to the bets before then.

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I think I still need a good definition of "offensively" or a replacement for it. Perhaps simply any detonation that is not a test, an accident, or a peaceful detonation. Perhaps any such detonation that is outside of the originating country.

bought Ṁ100 of Israel NO

Edge case: what if Country A hacks into or infiltrates Country B's nuclear arsenal and detonates Country B's nuke?

@jack Good question! I have no idea. Probably turns into a fuzzy mess. Suggestions?

@EvanDaniel I think it should be resolved to A in that case.

@jack I'm mostly inclined to agree; following intent is good in lots of ways. The downside is that attribution to the arsenal is likely to be far easier, with lower risk of resolving as [unattributed].

bought Ṁ100 of Israel NO

I hope someone with a lot of mana shows up, I can't keep these low enough myself. I already blew half my balance.

@Eliza Fortunately, there are loans! It'll come back soon, just be a tiny bit patient :)

@Eliza Also I decided to offer loans to bet on this and related questions. Let me know if you want one! https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1193014085609078905

@EvanDaniel I don't take out loans, but maybe someone else will be up for it.

bought Ṁ100 of [Unattributed as of ... NO

Just for the clarity of everyone participating, what is the last year this would have had one resolve Yes, and which answer would it have been in that year?

bought Ṁ50 of [Unattributed as of ... NO

@Eliza United States, 1945. I'm not aware of any reason to think there have been any other candidates or even edge cases since. Base rates seem to be fairly low.

I would personally be shocked if anything on this list resolves Yes without something like /jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca-1f2e9a9515f4 also resolving Yes. (Caveat for slightly different date ranges; that market includes the remainder of 2023, this one does not.) Presumably this is an arbitrage opportunity. Ditto for /YoaaauuIohheee/will-any-country-use-a-nuclear-weap .

To state some of those edge cases explicitly: it's possible a nuclear weapon gets used offensively without causing a fatality. It's possible something misresolves or we have slightly different definitions of "use" vs. "use offensively". It's possible that cases like a launch and successful missile intercept without nuclear detonation cause weird resolutions.