Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2024?

Wars•Nuclear Risk•Nuclear War•Nuclear War 2024

175

Ṁ2.9K

Ṁ250

2025

1.3%

chance

ALL

Including tests, accidental detonations, etc.

Previous: /AmmonLam/will-a-nuclear-weapon-cause-over-10

Edit 2023-09-21 to use the same definitions as this market:

The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.
Detonation here means nuclear explosion. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.

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What about deaths from radiation exposure from past tests/detonations?

bought Ṁ500 of NO

I suggest using rules similar to the ones I've used in my questions:

fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca-1f2e9a9515f4

Will a nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2024?

50% chance. Resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated and causes at least 1 fatality, after September 1, 2023 and before January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO. The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution. Detonation here means nuclear explosion. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.

predicts NO

@jack thanks! My intent is to talk about new uses o of weapons, not residual deaths from past uses. Secondarily, it's to match other existing markets as closely as possible.

The 2023 version of this doesn't specify; if that author clarified a good answer I'd rather copy that than sorry about the exact details. Falling that I'll try to copy one of yours.

predicts NO

@jack Updated to use those definitions, thank you for the suggestion.