This market is to predict what the final ruling in the case of US v. Skrmetti, which held oral arguments on December 4, 2024, and is expected to have a final decision in June of 2025. The case deals with a Tennessee law, SB1, which:
"declares that the state has a 'compelling interest in encouraging minors to appreciate their sex, particularly as they undergo puberty.' SB1 prohibits doctors from performing surgery (a ban not at issue before the justices) or prescribing puberty blockers and hormone therapy to affirm the gender identity of transgender teens. The law, however, allows the use of the same treatments for other purposes. For example, puberty blockers may be used to treat young people experiencing early puberty, while hormone therapy can be used for young people for whom puberty is delayed."
The market will resolve when the court's final decision is released to the public. The "any other result" criteria would hit in the instance that a justice leaves the court (retires or expires), or if the court makes a decision which does not either overturn nor uphold the law (such as kicking it back down to the lower courts).
As one commenter noted, there is no 9-0 overturning ban. While it was a mistake on my part not to include this, I would place this under the "any other result" category.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
Concurring, concurring in part, and dissenting in part decisions will be categorized as either overturning or upholding the law
If any justice rules that the decision should be sent back to lower courts, this will resolve as any other result
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