Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?
Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?
25
1kṀ34162026
20%
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https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/index/policies
As of market creation, the "gender identity" tab currently includes 37 states that are either "high" or "negative" in their policy tally. At market close, this resolves YES if that number is 45 or above, otherwise it resolves NO.
In the event that lgbtmap changes its scoring criteria significantly or ceases to exist, I'll do my best to resolve based on the scoring criteria in place at the time of market creation.
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For trans policy in particular, you want the "gender identity" tab - which is already at 37 states (and four territories.) It could decrease over the next few years, so it's not an auto-YES, but...
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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