This market resolves Yes if a challenge to this ruling or a very similar ruling enters into the SCOTUS case queue before the end of 2025. After that, the hearing can occur at a later date, or the case can be dropped.
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It is obvious from the wording of this market that Panfilo is remarkably unqualified to be judging a legal market. They are using very little of the right language, to the point that I, a former constitutional lawyer, have no idea what the market is asking about. "[P]rotected class" under what law? different laws have different lists of protected classes. I don't know of any federal law under which gender identity is one, so speaking of a "challenge to gender identity as a protected class" is, um, odd to say the least. I also don't know what would qualify as the Supreme Court "receiving" a challenge or a challenge "enter[ing] into the ... queue", as these are not the terms lawyers use for any part of the process. Does this mean the Supreme Court receiving a cert petition (being asked to hear the case, in which case the answer is very like 'yes')? Or does it mean the Supreme Court granting the cert petition? Does action on the emergency docket count? If a market maker can't express a legal question more clearly than this, then they have no business making a market on any legal topic.
@Panfilo If Manifold ever takes any responsibility for their markets and market makers, maybe I will come to trust and like the site enough to make markets on it. Right now I don't.