Similar terms as /EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos and /EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos-N9U9U2IPzn. Resolves based on my personal sense of all AI hell.

Twice as much AI-driven economic and political change as happened up to Nov 2026 is not sufficient.

Different factions of the US army having tank battles, after being persuaded by different AIs, is sufficient but not necessary.

Ordinary people walking around going, "Wow, all hell sure broke loose there, huh" or AI-caused events on the order of Covid-19 and its response, the Great Recession's cumulative impact, or Trump's 2016 election and its political sequelae across both his terms, would cause me to go "Eehhhh" and ask for further detail: like whether this was human-prompted versus an AI going rogue and doing it on purpose, whether it had happened by AI intelligent plan versus AI mistake, whether there was visibly more hell on the way from the same source, etc.

Equally great positive impacts would count as hell.

If everyone is dead before I get a chance to feel confident in resolving this market, this market should conceptually resolve N/A.

If you are hesitating to bet in this market because you expect it implies you'll have little use for mana afterward, you should maybe notice that fact and maybe write your elected representatives about it before you die.

See other Q&As in the first and second market.