Resolves to poll at market close. Participants will vote on whether the events from market creation until April 25, 2028, more closely resemble the "Slowdown" or "Race" endings of AI 2027.
1,000I thought everyone should see this: The members of the AI futures project have given an update and they appear to now be relying on the 80% time horizon length graph from METR for their predictions rather than the 50% time horizon length graph and their timelines have gotten longer. Here is there most recent update: https://open.substack.com/pub/aifutures1/p/ai-futures-model-dec-2025-update?r=6lp84s&utm_medium=ios. Daniel and Eli think that the scenario as laid out will basically be the same except that it will happen a few years later. Daniel pointed out that things appear to be 1 year behind the original scenario. As of right now Daniel thinks things will start to unfold in 2029 while Eli thinks things will start to unfold in 2030.