Same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU, but about the year 2026.

Quote: """
Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter

Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it.
"""

Are we about to hit another AI winter?

15% chance. Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it.