Resolves YES if, before December 31, 2027, at least three major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times) explicitly describe a sustained downturn in AI investment, valuations, or AI-related public stocks as an “AI bubble burst,” “AI crash,” or equivalent term primarily attributed to AI sector dynamics.
General economic downturns not primarily attributed to AI do not count.
Sustained downturn = A decline of at least 30% from a prior peak sustained for at least 3 consecutive months, in at least three major publicly traded companies widely recognized as primary beneficiaries of the AI boom OR a documented reduction in AI venture funding and valuations covering at least two consecutive quarters.
Examples of public AI companies include, but are not limited to: NVDA, AMD, TSMC
Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the "sustained downturn" requirement:
3 AI stocks must decline at least 30% from prior peak for 3 consecutive months, OR
Reduced AI venture funding and valuations for two consecutive quarters
Both conditions still require that at least three major financial news outlets explicitly describe this as an "AI bubble burst," "AI crash," or equivalent term primarily attributed to AI sector dynamics.
1,000I’m a little nervous about betting no in this market because the description makes it sound like something dumb like the Deepseek moment could trigger a yes resolution just because a few prominent news companies decide to narrativize it as “the bubble finally popped.”
Can we get some more details on what qualifies as a “sustained” downturn in AI investment or “valuations”/“AI-related public stocks” please? If NVIDIA and OpenAI both drop by over 34% for 2 months, is that enough? Does the whole category of AI hardware + frontier model development have to go down by 50% over a 6+ month period? The details really change the resolution probability imo.