Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?
Basic
4
1.3k
2031
24%
chance

Market resolves YES if I am the victim of a blackmail or ransom threat that heavily relies on AI which would be significantly more difficult (or impossible) for a human to execute without AI assistance. The market resolves NO if this does not happen by December 31, 2031, 11:59:59 UTC.

The attacking message cannot be marked as spam/scam by whatever medium I am receiving the message in. There also needs to be a reasonable chance (>0.1% of readers/listeners) that someone would fall for the scam or pay the attacker.

Examples that would result in a YES resolution:

  • I receive a call claiming a loved one is held hostage, using an AI-generated voice of that loved one, demanding ransom.

  • An AI-generated image of me engaging in illegal activity is used to blackmail me.

  • An AI is utilized to gather personal information about me online, which an attacker then uses for blackmail.

Examples that would not result in a YES resolution:

  • A loved one receives a call claiming I am held hostage. (I am not the victim in this case.)

  • I receive a generic scam email utilizing an AI that is used to search for email addresses online.

  • A language model generates a generic scam email addressed to me, even if it includes some easily accessible information about me.

  • An AI builds a close relationship with me and convinces me to send money to someone (this scenario is not a blackmail/ransom threat).

I will resolve ambiguous cases by poll (potentially proportional to the poll), but I will wait until the end of 2031 in case a clearer threat occurs.

Helpful information about me (as of June 2024): I live in Qatar. I will be a senior in high school next school year. My family and I do not post our faces or voices on social media, but you can occasionally find photos of me through Google searches due to other organizations (e.g. school). I consider myself somewhat paranoid about privacy. By 2031, I will likely have been out of college for two years.

I will answer questions about myself at my discretion and will make an effort to clarify questions regarding the market resolution.

I will place an initial bet of NO in the market and will not buy or sell any shares in this market afterward.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Voting yes because it's possible that spurious ransom threats with imitated voices will become a common spam message, & everyone will safely ignore them.

This would count as YES as long as there is a reasonable (>0.1%) chance someone would fall for the scam.

I would also need to be able to receive and view/hear the message without it being marked as spam/scam. I will update the market resolution to clarify this.

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