Extropic AI is Beff Jezos' AI startup. They claim to be self assembling intelligence from the future.

This market resolves YES if on EOY 2027 it is my opinion that due to research performed at Extropic AI or a product they release the time until an artificial intelligence with a greater capacity for optimization than all of humanity has become shorter, and NO otherwise. If I am unable to have an opinion on EOY 2027, this market resolves N/A.

For background, I don't have any particularly strong opinions as to what can/cannot scale to superintelligence, e.g. I am not in the "autoregressive LLMs are a dead end" camp, but also think it's reasonable to believe an alternative method for making sand think will cause superinteliigence. Feel free to ask clarifying questions about my thoughts on timelines and superintelligence if you think it well help you make a more accurate prediction.

I will not trade in this market.