Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
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2032
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As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'

"I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market. Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.

I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is. Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.

This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).

This resolve to NO if that does not happen.

This market can only resolve early if the event happens.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

While Gensler's mechanism seems unlikely, things of the type 'AI accidentally starts a war/pandemic/bad-thing that causes the stock market to crash' seems more plausible.

@NicoDelon I asked a related question with a shorter timeline and indexed to Cowen's judgment: /NicoDelon/will-ai-cause-a-market-crash-2024

Does it need to be down net 20% or would a flash crash that's quickly reversed count?

@MattLashofSullivan Close to close. I don't really care if there is a strange print for two minutes, and tried to make that clear in the description.

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