Dr P's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -18.52
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Dr P bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
- Will Donald Trump be US President on September 12, 2022?NOṀ1,000
- Were any of the COVID-19 vaccines designed to cause infertility, contain microchips, or have any other secret effects?NOṀ600
- Were any of the COVID-19 vaccines designed to cause infertility, contain microchips, or have any other secret effects?NOṀ500
40%
50%
- Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by September 11th, 2022?NOṀ300
- Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by September 11th, 2022?NOṀ200
- Will Donald Trump by the President of the United States by Feb. 28, 2022?NOṀ150
60%
- Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by September 11th, 2022?NOṀ400
- Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by September 11th, 2022?NOṀ200
- Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by July 31st, 2022?NOṀ100
70%
- Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by September 17th, 2022?NOṀ500
- Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States of (or for) America by July 4th, 2022?NOṀ150
- A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022YESṀ100
80%
90%
97%