Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
resolved Jan 1
Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan, regardless of whether they succeed #China #War #Taiwan
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predicted NO

Resolve pls?

Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?

Big if true

Journalistas larping as Machiavelli (also ITT)

predicted NO

Chinese stocks are super cheap if one can assume the Taiwan issues won’t result in an outcome that leads to Russian style freeze / loss of holdings

predicted NO

About to go to Taiwan for holiday, hope I don't get blown up.

predicted NO

@MilesDisch Enjoy the food there, taiwan is awesome.

@stormtk293 This is a very good way to articulate how fearful anyone should be! Good food, great times!!

predicted NO

"This is not a matter of if they will invade, it's a matter of when they will invade."

CBS: The persistent threat of China invading Taiwan

@stormtk293 LOL. China will invade Taiwan when they are desperate and we all know how that will go. Invading Taiwan is basically impossible. Mao could have literally thrown 50 million+ people at Taiwan and even he didn't even try because he knew it was impossible. To think that China's Navy comprised of geared out fishing boats stands a chance against the US and Japanese Navies, each of which outmatch China alone, is a hilarious fantasy.

predicted NO

@BTE The question is not whether they will succeed, but whether they will try.

@Yev My point is that it is irrational to try. And the Chinese are not known for their irrationality.

@Yev I will say that my thinking is shifting to the goals being much more about destroying the only viable political opponents to the CCP, which is the government in Taiwan. They can't take over TSMC and start making semiconductors for themselves, but they can stoke fear for a prolonged period by just constantly shelling while simultaneously cutting off Taiwan from supplies. Force the people to revolt for food and electricity or whatever. No invasion necessary, don't give them anything to shoot at, just constant fear and darkness.

predicted NO

@BTE When was the last time terror bombing has worked and resulted in a change of regime?

predicted NO

In addition to the market M just posted, there is also this nearly identical market which I created a few days ago.

I'm using the same resolution criteria as a longer-dated Metaculus market, which may be helpful in avoiding ambiguous outcomes.

predicted NO

moving to market looking more profitable and realising my gains here

Manifold is not providing enough incentive to correct obvious misprediction here

@M As in you'd prefer to bet your money rather than take the say 4.5% alpha and the 5% of capita a week loan?

I would put more, but I run out of manifold points. Seriously: why? How? With what navy?

Though such suicide would be probably a good thing overall, I would not expect decisionmaking skill below Putin level.

@M Not a single member of the PLA has ever fired at an enemy. Their Navy is a joke. Lots of ships that can barely patrol the coast. China had a bigger blue water navy in the 1400's than they do today. Plus the PLA is a collection of political factions, NOT one military force with unified command structure under Xi as Commander in Chief. If they invade Taiwan, it will probably be for reasons of internal political strife into which nobody inside or outside China gets even the slightest visibility. Crazy times...

predicted NO

@BTE Are we doing the ship counting thing where the US had a bigger navy in the 1800s and we pretend that those ships are remotely comparable 1:1 with modern ships?

@MartinRandall No. I was just making a point that china's navy cannot operate outside of a very tight radius to the mainland and their artificial islands, and has not been able to do so for hundreds of years because of numerous reasons. China's navy isn't even on the level of the Japanese, who are about to finish sea testing and launch the only aircraft carrier anywhere in the world even close to our Ford class. Mitsubishi also manufacturers most of the best US military aircraft so China will never be even close to a position to seriously do this. Nevermind the tides and the fact that there is 180 miles or so between mainland and Taiwan. China's navy is a a glorified coast guard.

Betting/finance noob here. Do people betting "yes" to raise the payout for "no" so that their other account could win more?

predicted NO

@DarksairSun I don't think so. There's a couple people on this site who make terrible bets as a joke, because spiky lines are funny.

predicted NO

@MichaelWheatley Huh... I guess that makes some sense. It's not real money anyways.

@MetroWind This is the TRANCHE monster it will eat your hard earned profits for breakfast.

predicted NO

@MetroWind I wouldn't go so far as to say it makes sense.

predicted YES

@MichaelWheatley U can spike deeez nuts 🥜 😂

@MetroWind that is plausible. But no one has 2 accounts right?

predicted NO

@Undox some people operate bots, but other than that probably not. In my case, my bot never bets except to provide initial answers.

@LivInTheLookingGlass Is there a way to distinguish bots from the real people? Some use easily identified naming like @jack and @jack2 (latter is the not I believe) but not always. Can we add a thing to the name maybe?

predicted NO

@BTE I think all bots are supposed to have usernames that end with bot. Mime would be @MarketManagerBot

predicted NO

@LivInTheLookingGlass I think that's only for entrants into the bot contest