Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
2%
chance
Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan, regardless of whether they succeed
#China #War #Taiwan
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https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2022
Quite absurd this market given that MM thinks China will allow Pelosi to land. It's literally now or never (until the end of the year).
7% is absurdly high, but only +6% payout at the end of year is offered
@athenaciara yes! I saw this and it convinced me it’s not practical to invade unless you have absolute surprise, but even then it’s hard to see what is gained other than perhaps eliminating the only potential long term organized political threat to the CCP. If the party were to suffer major crisis of credibility with the population Taiwan is the only Chinese political alternative now that Hong Kong has been fully absorbed under party control.
I would bet more, it is even lower, but expected reward is meager.
Save America from the “Chyna” virus!
https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden-0e059855d7f0
*contributions to the Trump Election Defense Fund are non-refundable.
a few somewhat related metaculus markets:
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8885/conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan-by-2023/
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/
50% feels distressingly high! If true, I need to convince my Taiwanese relatives to come join us in the US...
Niclas Kupper
sold Ṁ10 NO at 2% 
Robb
bought Ṁ50 NO at 2% 
HoosierDaddy
sold Ṁ10 NO at 2% 
David Mathers
sold Ṁ50 NO at 2% 
Jacob
sold Ṁ12 YES from 3% to 2% Nick Allen
bought Ṁ10 YES from 2% to 3% 
N
bought Ṁ10 NO at 2% 
Eugen Grue
sold Ṁ259 NO at 2% 
Mohit Karnani
bought Ṁ164 NO at 2% 
RHEL
bought Ṁ100 NO at 2% RHEL
sold Ṁ200 NO at 2% AccelerationBot
filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 2% RHEL
bought Ṁ100 NO at 2% RHEL
bought Ṁ100 NO from 3% to 2% HoosierDaddy
bought Ṁ10 NO at 3% 
Alec Cenci
bought Ṁ10 NO at 3% 
Carson G.
bought Ṁ10 NO at 3% 
Tex Toma
sold Ṁ49 NO at 3% 
Jeffrey Heninger
bought Ṁ10 NO at 3% Tex Toma
created limit order for Ṁ8 NO at 99.0% Tex Toma
created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 99.0% 
Ernest French
bought Ṁ10 YES from 2% to 3% 
Paul Hobbs
sold Ṁ40 NO at 2% Tex Toma
bought Ṁ10 NO at 2% Tex Toma
bought Ṁ15 NO at 2% 
🦔
bought Ṁ10 YES at 2% 
Sebastián Ortega
bought Ṁ45 NO at 2% Tex Toma
bought Ṁ10 NO at 2% Tex Toma
bought Ṁ15 NO at 2% AccelerationBot
filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 1.0% 
SneakySly
bought Ṁ10 NO at 2% 
Gordon Fierce
bought Ṁ10 NO at 2% 
Andoni Martín
sold Ṁ7 YES at 2% Tex Toma
sold Ṁ31 YES from 3% to 2% 
Logan
bought Ṁ10 NO at 3% 
nick salvucci
bought Ṁ10 NO at 3% Andoni Martín
bought Ṁ10 YES at 3% AccelerationBot
filled limit order Ṁ150/Ṁ150 NO at 3% 
John Beshir
bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 4% to 3% 
Dustin
sold Ṁ8 YES at 4% Eugen Grue
bought Ṁ10 NO at 4% .jpg%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Dfb83f18b-ca71-49db-8b32-7b23aa4cf70a&w=96&q=75){kind=small}
John Roxton
sold Ṁ6 YES from 5% to 4% 
Vishnu Ks
bought Ṁ10 NO at 5% David Mathers
bought Ṁ25 NO at 5% 
lloydhavemercy
bought Ṁ100 NO at 5% Tex Toma
bought Ṁ50 YES from 3% to 5% Tex Toma
bought Ṁ10 NO at 3% 
greatness greatness
created limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 20% 
Edward Kmett
created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 10% Edward Kmett
created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 1.0% YES shares
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