Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
2%
chance
Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan, regardless of whether they succeed #China #War #Taiwan
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DanForootan avatar
Dan Forootan
is predicting NO at 4%
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Miles Disch
is predicting NO at 4%
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Stormtrooper TK-293
is predicting NO at 4%
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Stormtrooper TK-293
is predicting NO at 2%
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Yev ✔️
is predicting NO at 2%
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Yev ✔️
is predicting NO at 4%
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Mr. B
is predicting NO at 6%
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is predicting NO at 8%
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sold Ṁ190 of NO
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bought Ṁ10 of NO
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Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 7%
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MetroWind
bought Ṁ200 of NO
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley
is predicting NO at 9%
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MetroWind
is predicting NO at 9%
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Michael Wheatley
is predicting NO at 9%
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Dr P
is predicting YES at 11%
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Undox
bought Ṁ50 of YES
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Olivia
is predicting NO at 15%
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Olivia
is predicting NO at 9%
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Michael Wheatley
is predicting NO at 9%
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Dr P
bought Ṁ132 of YES
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MP
is predicting NO at 14%
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Stormtrooper TK-293
is predicting NO at 10%
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GeorgeVii
is predicting YES at 10%
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Dr P
bought Ṁ320 of YES
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https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2022 Quite absurd this market given that MM thinks China will allow Pelosi to land. It's literally now or never (until the end of the year).
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is predicting NO at 7%
7% is absurdly high, but only +6% payout at the end of year is offered
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@M I agree. 7% for this market should payout 4-5x what it would on other similar markets. As of now there is no incentive to bet no.
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Athena C.
is predicting NO at 5%
Some reasons why invading Taiwan would be difficult: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2LiMTtGrAY
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@athenaciara yes! I saw this and it convinced me it’s not practical to invade unless you have absolute surprise, but even then it’s hard to see what is gained other than perhaps eliminating the only potential long term organized political threat to the CCP. If the party were to suffer major crisis of credibility with the population Taiwan is the only Chinese political alternative now that Hong Kong has been fully absorbed under party control.
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bought Ṁ10 of NO
I would bet more, it is even lower, but expected reward is meager.
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Dr P
is predicting YES at 5%
Save America from the “Chyna” virus! https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden-0e059855d7f0 *contributions to the Trump Election Defense Fund are non-refundable.
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alwaysrinse
bought Ṁ10 of NO
10% in 6 months is way too high
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Gigacasting
bought Ṁ5 of NO
[yes meme]
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Dr P
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Pampu.
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Dr P
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Pamp it.
AndyMartin avatar
Andy Martin
sold Ṁ106 of NO
selling to use the money elsewhere
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Austin
bought Ṁ10 of NO
50% feels distressingly high! If true, I need to convince my Taiwanese relatives to come join us in the US...