Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States of (or for) America by July 4th, 2022?

157

127

Ṁ54K

Ṁ333

resolved Jul 5

Resolved

ALL

Because I am now a manifold celebrity I will allow the plebs another shot at the infamous Trump for president markets. I also promise to resolve the market on time - with or without stern emails or ball-licking incentive.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ247
2		Ṁ135
3		Ṁ87
4		Ṁ83
5		Ṁ66

25 Comments

136 Holders

564 Trades

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predicted YES

https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden

predicted YES

Run it back!

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Dr P, if you make mana on this market, will you donate it to the Trump Election Defense Fund?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

What the hell did you do to my.... PAMPU OVERWHELMING!!!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

> Payout if YES M$105(+951.8%) Sadly it is not SO unlikely

predicted YES

@M you think there's a more than 1 in 10 chance Donald Trump is the current US president by July 4th? Or just a more than 1 in 10 chance Dr P resolves the market that way?

predicted YES

/for/ America!

predicted YES

@MattP both

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I wonder if this would have been a good market to inject liquidity into. Do rapid swings imply that?

@MartinRandall Since you can't withdraw liquidity early, the most important thing to make profit off of liquidity is that the market never converges to 100% or 0% so that the liquidity pool has shares of the right option to pay you with. Otherwise just high trade volume, ideally trades that are more exposed to fees. (I put M$200 of liquidity into this market a few days ago.)

sold Ṁ30 of NO

Can withdraw liquidity now. Just added m100 mostly as an experiment. The liquidity so far doesn't seem to be preventing big spikes in probability.

bought Ṁ150 of YES

MOAR PAMP!!

bought Ṁ150 of YES

PAMPU!!!

predicted NO

Polymarket gives him a chance of 1% to be president, I think they are miscalibrated. https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-1-2022

predicted YES

@Milli no they ain’t - they just don’t got the local troll throwing clown money at their markets over there Hahaha

sold Ṁ48 of YES

All I know is that Im at a $125 profit on this market :D

predicted YES

Wow, betting 1000 no when Dr P is simply going to resolve YES, and justify this by claiming that Trump is the president "for" America, while certain other presidents are anti America or something... I mean, he put in that "of (or for)" clause for a reason, right?