Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States of (or for) America by July 4th, 2022?
157
333Ṁ54k
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
NO
Because I am now a manifold celebrity I will allow the plebs another shot at the infamous Trump for president markets. I also promise to resolve the market on time - with or without stern emails or ball-licking incentive.
Trump
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predictedYES
https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden
predictedYES
Run it back!
Dr P, if you make mana on this market, will you donate it to the Trump Election Defense Fund?
What the hell did you do to my.... PAMPU OVERWHELMING!!!
> Payout if YES M$105(+951.8%) Sadly it is not SO unlikely
predictedYES
@M you think there's a more than 1 in 10 chance Donald Trump is the current US president by July 4th? Or just a more than 1 in 10 chance Dr P resolves the market that way?
predictedYES
/for/ America!
predictedYES
@MattP both
I wonder if this would have been a good market to inject liquidity into. Do rapid swings imply that?
@MartinRandall Since you can't withdraw liquidity early, the most important thing to make profit off of liquidity is that the market never converges to 100% or 0% so that the liquidity pool has shares of the right option to pay you with. Otherwise just high trade volume, ideally trades that are more exposed to fees. (I put M$200 of liquidity into this market a few days ago.)
Can withdraw liquidity now. Just added m100 mostly as an experiment. The liquidity so far doesn't seem to be preventing big spikes in probability.
MOAR PAMP!!
PAMPU!!!
predictedNO
Polymarket gives him a chance of 1% to be president, I think they are miscalibrated. https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-1-2022
predictedYES
@Milli no they ain’t - they just don’t got the local troll throwing clown money at their markets over there Hahaha
All I know is that Im at a $125 profit on this market :D
predictedYES
Wow, betting 1000 no when Dr P is simply going to resolve YES, and justify this by claiming that Trump is the president "for" America, while certain other presidents are anti America or something... I mean, he put in that "of (or for)" clause for a reason, right?
predictedYES
@AlexRockwell Incorrect, my oblivious amigo. Maybe you should have a look at the original constitution before
predictedYES
... before 1871. I’ve already said too much.
@AlexRockwell Dr P is one of this site's best trolls.
predictedYES
I’ve got the kkk act and the third force act in 1871. Anyone else got an idea?
predictedYES
@Angela definitely the KKK act.
I have to full yolo this one
Reminder that you can hedge here: https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-dr-p-resolve-his-current-trump
Pampu’d your mom.

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