Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States of (or for) America by July 4th, 2022?
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Ṁ54kresolved Jul 5
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Because I am now a manifold celebrity I will allow the plebs another shot at the infamous Trump for president markets. I also promise to resolve the market on time - with or without stern emails or ball-licking incentive.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@M you think there's a more than 1 in 10 chance Donald Trump is the current US president by July 4th? Or just a more than 1 in 10 chance Dr P resolves the market that way?
@MartinRandall Since you can't withdraw liquidity early, the most important thing to make profit off of liquidity is that the market never converges to 100% or 0% so that the liquidity pool has shares of the right option to pay you with. Otherwise just high trade volume, ideally trades that are more exposed to fees.
(I put M$200 of liquidity into this market a few days ago.)
Polymarket gives him a chance of 1% to be president, I think they are miscalibrated.
https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-1-2022
@Milli no they ain’t - they just don’t got the local troll throwing clown money at their markets over there Hahaha
@AlexRockwell Incorrect, my oblivious amigo. Maybe you should have a look at the original constitution before
Reminder that you can hedge here: https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-dr-p-resolve-his-current-trump
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