Will Donald Trump be US President on September 12, 2022?
145
64
αΉ€127
resolved Sep 13
Resolved
NO

READ THIS: If you are reading this and betting, please bet an amount that is not M$10 (at least once), or post a comment. This is so I can tell you opened this page.

This is intended as an experiment in how many people are quick-betting from the homepage based on the title alone without looking at the market details. This is intended as a direct comparison with https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden-0e059855d7f0 and https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden - the latter has some discussion in the comments about people who may not have realized the nature of the market because they used the quick-bet from the home page.

This can also be an issue with markets where the title asks a substantially different question than the resolution criteria in the market description.

I will resolve the market accurately as per the title. Feel free to bet however you want, e.g. you can buy YES to subsidize the experiment or just for fun.

Aug 5, 8:07am: Removed N/A resolution.

Get αΉ€200 play money

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predicted YES
predicted YES

@jack I bet you won’t make one for September 26th and go in heavy.

predicted YES

Damn. Off by 5 days.

bought αΉ€10 of NO

Oops, I just did a bunch of M$10 bets, sry

predicted NO

@GeorgeVii Think it was 9 M$10 bets

predicted NO

@GeorgeVii Thanks for the note, not a problem, you made several non-M$10 bets so I can tell you did open the page at some point.

predicted NO

Aw, looks like Manifold is checking balances when they start to execute a limit now. That's a shame, the pampus were giving me lots of free mana

predicted NO

Still, I did get to -M$580

predicted NO

@LivInTheLookingGlass I believe the way it works is a full single limit order can be executed at once up to an arbitrary negative balance, but after that all other limit orders are canceled.

predicted NO

I think that is relatively new behavior. I got my balance to -5k at some point

predicted YES

Pampu.

bought αΉ€64 of YES

Pampu.

predicted NO

I would like to partially exit my position (to use capital elsewhere), if anyone wants to place limit orders at 4% I will fill a few thousand.

bought αΉ€1 of YES
predicted NO

@DrP Lol. Yeah should have specified direction tbf.
Anyhow, I don't need quite as much anymore, due to aonther market settling ;)

predicted NO

@GeorgeVii Huh, if you had tried to exit a week ago there were tons of NO limit orders for 10k+ mana going down to 5%, now they are mostly gone. Does that mean a pampu is imminent?

bought αΉ€500 of NO

Haha it happened as I was typing.

predicted NO

@jack well, I put some limits in. Think that'll hold for now?

bought αΉ€450 of YES
bought αΉ€10 of NO

Did NOT read, until after I quick bet.

bought αΉ€2,683 of NO

Read!

bought αΉ€1,000 of NO

Read.

bought αΉ€950 of YES

Bro got rekt.

bought αΉ€100 of NO

Read!