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https://forums.deathlist.net/topic/2906-12-queen-elizabeth-ii/?page=140

Damn, this poll was posted after her decline

Lesson learned: don't try to arbitrage with limit orders on a market that might unpredictably resolve in the next hour.

Time to crown the new King, Dr P.

@DrP Props on resolving this market quickly and accurately!

Why is this market so low?

@DrP If I had to guess, it's either because there is a chance she dies right after sept 11 or because people underestimate how fast health can deteriorate at when the end comes.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/08/uk/queen-health-supervision-gbr-intl/index.html

Queen Elizabeth II's doctors "are concerned" for her health and have recommended that the monarch remain under medical supervision, Buckingham Palace said in a statement on Thursday.

Created two related markets. One is a copy of DrP's market but a) not made by DrP, and b) with better specified resolution criteria - since we're talking about the next 2-3 days, timezone and the meaning of "before September 11" could matter (I think it clearly means by end of day September 10).

Why is this market so high?

@MP the good Doctor is inscrutable, and though he has yet to resolve a market incorrectly, his motives are unknown enough that people are somewhat cautious about committing too fully to a market he creates.

Especially if by inscrutible you mean incredibly trollish

@LivInTheLookingGlass Get rekt bro!

@MP I am still concerned by this market. Wast there enough information back then?

@MP I would bet that a market created by someone else would have looked quite different.

@jack Quit being a whiney little bitch.

@MP Building a large and diverse portfolio of longshot bets like this, and goading people into taking the other side, is a trading strategy that predates even equity markets, let alone futures markets. Venture capitalism is very popular these days!

@cos I agree and it could be a very clever strategy, but 15% for about a month is a bit on the high side if there weren't any specific health concerns in early August to raise the short-term probability (I'm not sure if there were or not). Metaculus was predicting median of about a year: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/. Which would imply (very roughly) 50% / 12 = 4% per month.

@jack Exactly, the 3-6% seemed right, but people were betting at 15%. WOW

@MP Yeah cuz of the big dick pampus... duh