Will Dr P resolve his 7/31 Trump market accurately within 1 month?

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Ṁ14k

resolved Aug 27

Resolved

YES

ALL

https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Predictions on Predictions

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26 Comments

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@jack He did.

predicted YES

I will be closing this market in 10 days at the very latest.

predicted YES

@DrP On the 26th or 27th at the latest.

predicted YES

@DrP That’s a Dr Picklestand promise.

Pampu.

ダンプ。

I fitted the times from close date to resolution date (78 days, 1 day) to an exponential distribution:

Expected time to resolution: 39.5 days

Pr(resolves in 31 days) = 54%

predicted YES

@athenaciara What a nerd.

predicted YES

Will the good Doctor make us wait til the end of the month, or will he resolve early? You tell me.

https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-dr-p-resolve-his-731-trump-mar-8278c28d9472

Pampu.

predicted YES

"Pampu" as in パンプ, "pump"?

Pampu.

Bet.

predicted YES

@DrP gonna resolve it now then?

predicted YES

@DrP I'm pretty new here and don't know the norms, but it seems to me that unnecessarily leaving a market unresolved (and thus locking people's mana, preventing them from future earnings and from playing the game) is the kind of thing that should reflect very poorly on your reputation here, just like resolving a market incorrectly would (though not to the same degree). I hope that you will either explain why it must remain unresolved for a while, or resolve it now.

predicted NO

@BenjaminCosman Everything you said about community norms is correct, but unfortunately DrP is a troll. (Look at their comment history to see what I mean).

predicted NO

That's why this market was at <90% the entire time. If you asked me the probability of any random market resolving correctly and on time, I think it's something like 99%, with most of the failure cases being the author forgetting about the market or disappearing entirely.

predicted YES

Yeah, I figured it didn't hurt to ask and to work on making norms more explicit, but at this point the only result I'm sure *won't* happen is a quick and accurate resolution.

predicted YES

@BenjaminCosman I'd bet he's stirring up fear just to profit off of both when he resolves it correctly at the last second

predicted NO

@BenjaminCosman Their reputation, such as it is in my mind, is that of a probable troll, trying to get people going, irritating without strictly breaking the rules. You can fairly expect them to be honest and accurate, behaving only just within accepted norms, but irritating and attention seeking to put it mildly. I, and I'm sure they will be pleased to hear it, consider them a prime argument for implementing a block function on this site

predicted YES

@jack Isn't this a joke market, though? 😕

predicted NO

@athenaciara To me DrP's market was clearly a joke, troll, scam, or something like that, but there are good reasons not everyone noticed it as such - there's some good discussion in the comments over there. The more the community can spread information about what is likely to be resolved accurately and on-time, vs what you should bet cautiously on, the better for everyone involved imo.

predicted YES

@BenjaminCosman it's definitely annoying of Dr P, though it seems like that's kind of his schtick. *cough* community rating system *cough*

@BenjaminCosman We definitely agree. We unfortunately are unlikely to get a super robust reputation system in place in the near future, but is something we would like to work on and know the community wants.

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