Will Dr P resolve his 7/31 Trump market accurately within 1 month?
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resolved Aug 27
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YES
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@jack He did.

predictedYES

I will be closing this market in 10 days at the very latest.

predictedYES

@DrP On the 26th or 27th at the latest.

predictedYES

@DrP That’s a Dr Picklestand promise.

Pampu.

ダンプ。

I fitted the times from close date to resolution date (78 days, 1 day) to an exponential distribution:

Expected time to resolution: 39.5 days

Pr(resolves in 31 days) = 54%

predictedYES

@athenaciara What a nerd.

predictedYES

Will the good Doctor make us wait til the end of the month, or will he resolve early? You tell me.

https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-dr-p-resolve-his-731-trump-mar-8278c28d9472

Pampu.

predictedYES
"Pampu" as in パンプ, "pump"?
Pampu.
Pampu.
Pampu.
Bet.
predictedYES
@DrP gonna resolve it now then?
predictedYES
@DrP I'm pretty new here and don't know the norms, but it seems to me that unnecessarily leaving a market unresolved (and thus locking people's mana, preventing them from future earnings and from playing the game) is the kind of thing that should reflect very poorly on your reputation here, just like resolving a market incorrectly would (though not to the same degree). I hope that you will either explain why it must remain unresolved for a while, or resolve it now.
predictedNO
@BenjaminCosman Everything you said about community norms is correct, but unfortunately DrP is a troll. (Look at their comment history to see what I mean).
predictedNO
That's why this market was at <90% the entire time. If you asked me the probability of any random market resolving correctly and on time, I think it's something like 99%, with most of the failure cases being the author forgetting about the market or disappearing entirely.
predictedYES
Yeah, I figured it didn't hurt to ask and to work on making norms more explicit, but at this point the only result I'm sure *won't* happen is a quick and accurate resolution.
predictedYES
@BenjaminCosman I'd bet he's stirring up fear just to profit off of both when he resolves it correctly at the last second
predictedNO
@BenjaminCosman Their reputation, such as it is in my mind, is that of a probable troll, trying to get people going, irritating without strictly breaking the rules. You can fairly expect them to be honest and accurate, behaving only just within accepted norms, but irritating and attention seeking to put it mildly. I, and I'm sure they will be pleased to hear it, consider them a prime argument for implementing a block function on this site
predictedYES
@jack Isn't this a joke market, though? 😕
predictedNO
@athenaciara To me DrP's market was clearly a joke, troll, scam, or something like that, but there are good reasons not everyone noticed it as such - there's some good discussion in the comments over there. The more the community can spread information about what is likely to be resolved accurately and on-time, vs what you should bet cautiously on, the better for everyone involved imo.
predictedYES
@BenjaminCosman it's definitely annoying of Dr P, though it seems like that's kind of his schtick. *cough* community rating system *cough*

@BenjaminCosman We definitely agree. We unfortunately are unlikely to get a super robust reputation system in place in the near future, but is something we would like to work on and know the community wants.

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