Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they don't buy a hand. See "How It Works" below for more info.
This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go (if I remember to do so but will try).
Resolution of this market
This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand subject to adjustments for cheats like pairing and resurrection (no pairing this time).
Note that bets here don't determine progression to later betting rounds. Go to the current round's question for that. This market may offer arbitrage opportunities for players' winning probabilities against the current betting round.
Current Status
The River market has been created.
So no resurrection or late joiner now possible
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-7-the-tur-3b81ccbfac9a
The river is King of Spades
Public Knowledge Cards
4 Diamonds 5 Clubs (Pat scott replaced cards)
2 clubs 8 Diamonds (A replaced cards)
The Audience
5 Spades, 6 Spades and an unknown card
Cheats
In this hand players and audience members can pay to do "cheats".
Cheats can be bought by adding a subsidy in the current betting round and commenting what cheat you'd like or sending me a managram with the same info. Managrams will be added to a prize pool given to the winner(s) at the end.
First hand I have dealt so no tournament this time while I see how it goes.
I will try to be timely in granting your cheat, but may take up to 12 hours to respond (so plan your cheats accordingly).
Menu ~
Call a specific card 50 mana to ask me if it's in the game ('yes' if it's in yet to be revealed flop/turn/river or in a current round player's hand. otherwise 'no' in all other cases)
No pairing this hand
Card(s) replacement 3 choices: A) 80 mana - replace a card that you choose in your hand, get a random new one, B) 40 Mana - replace both cards. C) 40 mana for randomly selected card replacement. In all options, your old card(s) will be declared publicly.
Max one replacement per player and only 2 of each type in this hand
Join late 50 mana per round deadline missed. This doesn't count round reopenings so 50 if deal betting started 100 if flop market created 150 if turn market created. I'll try to get your hand to you as soon as I can. Note: there's only one late joiner hand! cannot be purchased once we reach the River. Also the amount to send to me is 25 less because you need to add your name here with 25 cost
Resurrect your hand 100 mana per round omitted plus any net negative in the round where they went out. Upon purchase the resurrection will be announced if not requested on relevant thread. Resurrected hands only get half of resolution (other half spread out; so if they win resurrectee gets 50% while 2nd place gets 50%, in 2-way split resurrectee gets 25% other gets 75% etc no further adjustments for pairings as none in this hand). Cannot be purchased once we reach the River. more notes:
anyone can resurrect the Audience
multiple players can be resurrected, and multiple times if desired. all such use the "(Resurrected)" resolution in whichever questions their individual name(s) are not listed
How It Works
You can get a hand here by adding yourself to the list (25 Mana cost)
If betting on deal has started a single late joiner is possible but see cheats for the fee detail, pay that fee less the 25 for adding name here to claim the late joiner hand which I will try to get to you as soon as possible. If unsure whether there has already been a late joiner please ask.
Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents! but see rule 5 below for limits on betting for other opponents.
After a couple of days, I'll kick off the game with the first of the rapid (~1 day) questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River). I will close each of the rounds the first time at 19:00 UTC. Let me know if I forget to change the close time to that.
Minimum mana bet on yes on self minus mana bet on no on self is +10 in deal round or you are considered folded. This increases by 5 with each betting round.
You can bet no on as many other players as you like (this pushes your position up so is ok) but you can only bet yes on half of the other players listed for the round. Breaking this rule can result in you being considered folded regardless of your yes-no position on self. If breaking this rule appears to be a minor infraction e.g. 5 or less mana bet on someone it will probably be ignored. If accidental and fixable then I may well allow such a betting error to be fixed and if that is done then not punished by the considered folded rule. Let me know I will try to assess impartially and give ruling.
Cut off. 300 mana net yes is always enough to go though on a betting round to prevent it getting out of hand and biggest whale being able to force a win.
If at the first close time for the round, total for first + second place in net mana (i.e. mana bet on yes minus mana bet on no) are less than 3 times that for last and next to last place of those that have the minimum then all those with minimum go through to next betting round. This finishes the betting round and next market will be opened.
If first +second place net mana bet is 3 times or more than that for last and second last position with the minimum met then the claim gets reopened. Last and second last can either increase their net mana bet to that of second place net mana bet at the first closing time and go through or not do so and go out. Other players can bet with no effect on who goes through as they wish but rule 2 still prevents you betting yes on more than half the players still potentially in.
If there are only 2 players that meet the minimum then adding first and second would be same as adding last and second last so we just compare first to last place meeting minimum for the 3 times requirement meaning that if 1st place net mana bet is 3 times or more then the claim is reopened for last place to match first place net mana bet or be considered folded.
If per 7 above I reopen a round before 21:00 UTC (I hope to do it faster usually) then it will run to 23:00 UTC. If I don't reopen by 21:00 then it will likely run to 21:00 UTC the next day. There is possibility that if I give notice it is likely then perhaps reopen by 21:30 to run until 23:30 UTC would be ok if there are no objections.
The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:
was bought in by me
uses half of all the mana bet on yes only in place of other players using net mana on yes.
gets 3 cards 2 publicly visible with the third revealed at showdown if the audience reaches that far. The hand can use zero, one or two of the three cards only and are selected to make best possible poker hand with at least 3 of the 5 spread cards
The round questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner(s), equally.
If two or more players stick it out to the end I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner(s), and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.
If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who had the highest net mana bet in the previous round.
As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for very mismatched bets by players, so feel free to jump in even if you're intimidated by a whale in the water! They can do their thing, profit by playing market dynamics, and you can still come out on top :) Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy!
As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor except with official cheats. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.
Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility.
Side markets
Will winning hand be better than a pair?
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-7-will-wi
Excluding hand winner, who will be most successful bettor?
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-7-excludi
Feel free to add side markets
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ341 | |
| 2 | Ṁ113 | |
| 3 | Ṁ54 | |
| 4 | Ṁ51 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-8-buy-in
Might leave this up for a while to see if enough interest. No cheats to shorten rules. Feel free to comment on suggested rules.
Leaderboard after hand 7
1 Christopher Randles Ṁ3,782
2 Jason Ṁ2,071
3 Dilon Ṁ1,854
4 NamesAreHard Ṁ1,783
5 Fion Ṁ1,533
6 A Ṁ1,263
7 nickten💙💦🐬 Ṁ983
8 Pat Scott🩴Ṁ703
9 Simon Grayson Ṁ395
10 brubsby Ṁ199
11 wustep Ṁ163
12 cloe Ṁ84
13 Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot Ṁ65
14 Benjamin Shindel Ṁ57
15 Floris van Doorn Ṁ48
16 Genzy Ṁ37
17 Schwabilismus Ṁ35
18 Planarian Ṁ29
19 Alex B. Goode Ṁ29
20 Odoacre Ṁ26
21 Nico Terry Ṁ22
23 Gary Macphee Ṁ18
24 Kenny Silva Ṁ16
25 Travis Ṁ12
26 Lordoffatcats Ṁ9
27 Shuf Ṁ8
28 Bohaska Ṁ6
29 SCyper Ṁ6
30 Cris Ṁ4
31 Emilio Ṁ3
32 Kit Ye Leong Ṁ3
33 Patrick Snow Ṁ3
34 Alessandro Ṁ2
35 Super Tax Genius Ṁ1
36 Living Weights Ṁ1
37 evergreen Ṁ1
38 Rahul Shah Ṁ1
39 An Ting Ṁ0
40 Joshua Ṁ0
41 Abraxas Ṁ0
42 RealLies Ṁ0
43 ChameLeon Ṁ0
44 ToniBrown148 Ṁ0
45 Yves -Ṁ1
46 Stuart -Ṁ1
47 Anthony Peterson -Ṁ2
48 Primer -Ṁ2
49 Dylan Slagh -Ṁ3
it's very interesting sitting in on this as a player for the first time. the rules are super confusing and long in a way I never realized, and, though I'm traveling which makes it harder, it's not easy to keep up with the game. I'm curious what we can do to streamline this, make it easier for new players, and generally smooth out the experience
@Stralor If someone else wants to have a go at running this or thinks they can come up with some simplified/streamlined rules, I would prefer to play than run it.
@Stralor Yeah, I don't know if I've got a bit of Manifold-poker-fatigue or if I've just been busy recently, but I've been finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with the games.
If somebody has a good idea for more streamlined rules I'd be very excited, but I don't have any good ideas myself.
One challenge, I think, is that because we're still experimenting, every game is different, which means we never fully get the hang of it, which makes it harder to keep track of. But also that's a good thing because, let's be honest, we're probably here for the novelty as much as anything else.
The turn market is up
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-7-the-tur
Will winning hand be better than a pair?
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-7-will-wi
Sorry slow at adding side markets. Feel free to add your favourites.
The deal market is created at https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-7-the-dea
Dealing in progress, last chance to sign up before late joining fees will start to apply shortly.
Players I am not in contact with should contact me for me to send them their hand privately. I hope you can find me on discord with my display name is ChrisRan. If you want to do it via email then chrisran dot bma at virgin dot net
Changed current status to
Sign up period.
I am hoping errors in rules have been spotted by now and are more or less final but there may still be some potential for rules to need to be refined, tweeked or otherwise changed based on feedback or problems spotted
Latest round link - yet to be created but hopefully soon if we get some more signed up.
Hoping for some more sign ups to start soon.
@Jason @Dilon @A @Simon Grayson @brubsby @wustep @cloe @BenjaminShindel @FlorisvanDoorn @Gen @Schwabilismus @Planarian @AlexbGoode @Odoacre @NicoTerry @GaryMacphee @SMd186 @travis @Lordoffatcats
(Hope it is not too spammy to @ several who have bet on these Manifold plays poker markets.)
I think I need to edit in the following which I intended but hadn't stated.
The audience
uses half of all the mana bet on yes only in place of other players using net mana on yes.
gets 3 cards 2 publicly visible with the third revealed at showdown if the audience reaches that far. The hand can use zero, one or two of the three cards only and are selected to make best possible poker hand with at least 3 of the 5 spread cards
Let me know if this seems inappropriate
Now edited in.
a couple concerns:
late joining is already pretty expensive as you miss out on rounds of betting and info. those are steep penalties! are you sure you want to have that cheat at all?
I'm not sure I'm quite grasping why there's a 300 minimum safety rule since this game seems like it will at minimum have 2 players in the River and likely 4-6. the minimum is too high to protect minnows so I'm confused why it's there. also when does the round end if there are potential elims?
the Audience line in the how it works still mentions the tournament
@Stralor the 300 is a *maximum* forced amount not minimum. Without that when down to 2 players if one has 50000 mana and the other just 10000 mana and not much in holdings that can be sold off then the 50000 mana player can just bet 20000 mana and the less wealthy player can't stay in. The whale can bet 20000 if they want (probably not sensible with these rules, but if they want to do it, they can) but the smaller player can just stay in for 300 per betting round. I doubt the earlier rounds esp deal round will get anywhere near that amount when there are several players and one high bidder only forces some players to match second highest. Also only 2 players are forced up. While in theory you could be forced to have 1225 free mana to ensure you can stay in but it is unlikely you will need that much. If you are trying to play with only 500 free mana or less then it might be a bit more risky but you could probably try to ensure you are not in last or second last when the round first closes so not forced up to second highest amount. So with lots of players:
only 2 players are forced up, and
it is only to second highest net mana amount not highest, and
won't necessarily have someone forcing to high amounts in any rounds, and
likely only a round or 2 will be affected.
Still if you and/or others want to suggest a different amount as more appropriate, feel free to suggest an amount. I will certainly listen if there is general agreement
Late join fee. Yes perhaps that is too steep and we haven't had any before and this increase only discourages. Perhaps I should reduce this to 50 per round.
Re audience, oops, I'll edit that out.
>"as you miss out on rounds of betting and info"
I would disagree. Miss out on rounds of betting is an advantage. If you want to bet more you can do so in later rounds possibly intimidating other players and if you don't want to bet so much and thereby put too much mana at risk then missing a round is an advantage.
Re info. The info (certainly the betting and comments info is all public and you can study it as much as you wish. If card replacement cheats are exhausted before you join that would a disadvantage.
@Stralor i missed the "when does the round end if there are potential elims?" question,
Is this asking time after a reopening?
Edited that in.
or is it asking about mechanism with potential & sub minimum folded players? If that isn't clear let me know preferably with some hint of what you are confused about
del repeat
@ChristopherRandles and right about the 300 being the maximum you can be forced to pay, I called it the minimum because it's also the minimum to guarantee you stay. did any of our other hands reach that amount?
@Stralor Not sure. I bet 130 on myself on hand 6 turn and I suspect others have bet more in a round. I am not most aggressive better but I doubt it forced much from others.
There were discussions about trying to force fold Jason when he was staying in with only ~450 spare mana and net worth circa 8000. Never happened and perhaps force folding is viewed as mean / bad form. However, I thought that was a very risky position for Jason and I don't want to make it too risky or impossible for such players to join and have a go.
I am willing to adjust amount or consider a different mechanism
@nickten You are right it is longer and this could be off-putting.
There has been a trend of rules getting longer as rules get tinkered. Also feedback perhaps indicated people wanted the tinkering and variation. It may well be something to bear in mind to try to keep rules simple and short.