Manifold plays poker hand 7, Excluding hand winner, who will be most successful bettor?
6
130Ṁ750
resolved Aug 23
Resolved as
0.0%

Will use leaderboard for Manifold plays poker deducting position after the tournament see comments at

https://manifold.markets/Stralor/manifold-plays-poker-who-will-win-h-29002d3c6449

Adding markets unrelated to Manifold plays poker is not permitted and will be removed before settling this question.

Resolves with PROB= 100 if Pat Scott does not win hand, but with exception of hand winner, wins most (or loses least) from betting on all Manifold plays poker markets

PROB = 80 if Jason (terms as above)

PROB = 60 if Nickten (terms as above)

PROB - 40 if Fion (terms as above)

PROB - 20 if A (terms as above)

PROB = 0 if any single other trader (terms as above)

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Chris R profits on main markets

Buy in 341

Deal 2

Flop 1

Turn 17

River -

So that is 361 profits plus 40 paid as managram for cheat making 401 that go to hand winner Pat Scott

For this market

Fion 1533-1521 = 12

Nickten 990-938=52

Chris R 3782 - 3237 = 545 so even if I further deduct the 361 above going to Pat, I think I still win this.

Strange result when I was only betting on clear and obvious public information.

Multichoice markets are a but expensive to set up. This might have some strange effects if 2nd and 3rd most likely to win this question are close together and most likely is further away in payout PROB.

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