We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets.

This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go (I will try to remember).

This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand. Note that bets here don't determine the result of the game. Go to the current round's question for that.

Current Status

Turn market is up at

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-8-the-tur

The Flop and Turn

Audience hand

How It Works

1. You can get a hand here by adding yourself to the list.

2. Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents!

3. After a few days up to a week, I'll kick off the game with the first of the rapid (~1 day) questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River). I will close each of the rounds early at an unannounced time between 8:00 and 11:00 UTC. If there is insufficient interest I might NA this.

4. When I create the round markets (and know how many players are in each round I will announce how many players are likely to be dropped in that round. e.g. If there are 8 players, 25% is 2 so I might announce that "1, 2, or 3 players are likely to be dropped but if there are no gaps in the % chances shown by the UI for players to allow this then it might be 4 and if this is not possible either then it will be 0 players dropped."

   Examples with above announcement

   If the % displayed are 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 23 then we look at ratio of UI% 9/8 is larger than 10/9 or 11/10 so 1 player is dropped.

   If the % displayed are 10 10 10 10 14 15 15 16 then there is no gap for 1, 2 or 3 to be dropped but there is a gap for 4 to be dropped so 4 it is.

   If the % displayed are 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 20 then there are no gaps for 1 2 3 or 4 players to be dropped so it is 0 dropped.

5. Players who wish to continue have to add their name each round (cost 25 mana). Anyone who gets through previous round but does not add their name counts towards the number dropped. Adding your name if you did not get through previous rounds will not change that you did not get through and I will try to comment on this as soon as possible if others haven't already done so.

6. The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:

   • gets 3 cards 2 publicly visible with the third revealed at showdown if the audience reaches that far or after showdown. The hand can use zero, one or two of the three cards only and are selected to make best possible poker hand with at least 3 of the 5 spread cards

   • was bought in by me

7. The round questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner(s), equally.

8. If two or more players get through all rounds I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner(s), and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.

9. If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who had the highest valuation in the previous round.

As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for mismatched bets by players. Feel free to jump in. Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy!

As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor except with official cheats. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.

Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility

Will my next poker hand be trash again?

https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-my-next-poker-hand-be-trash-ag

will the audience's hidden card play

https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/manifold-playes-poker-hand-8-will-t