Manifold plays poker Hand 7 - The River. Who will win?
4
215Ṁ13
resolved Aug 23
100%42%
Pat Scott
24%
Jason
33%
Audience

Who will win? i.e. this market resolves to the winner(s) of the hand equally, (subject to ajustment if there is a ressurection).

To progress players need a minimum net bet of 25 YES mana (not position) on themselves. The last two that meet this minimum may need to bet more to stay in.

The Audience needs double the minimum, but doesn't count NO bets, so totaled YES bets on it of at least 50 will allow it to advance (subject to possibility of being forced to bid higher).

The audience hand is 5 spades 6 spades and an unknown card

The river is King of Spades

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sorry, have been dealing with a family crisis. if no one bid enough, fine treating that as a check and proceeding to showdown

@Jason according to the rules you have all folded since you didn't bet the minimum and:

"If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who had the highest net mana bet in the previous round."

so Pat Scott is the winner then i guess 🤷

@nickten aw no, so we don't even get to see the cards? I'll never know if I fell for a bunch of bluffing or if I escaped wasting money on a narrow loss!

@Fion Seems like adding 6 mana before the turn closed might have given you an easy chance to be only one reaching showdown. As to the cards, I think I shouldn't and won't say.

@ChristopherRandles wasn't it the turn that I folded? I think that was the one where everybody was betting massive amounts and I got scared. How would 6 mana have made a difference?

@Fion Yes it was the turn. The bet amounts were 20 21 25 and 2 high amounts, by Pat and Pat bets on audience. (So more like 1 person rather than everyone.) Only the bottom two get forced up. If you did this early on, Jason on 25 might have responded, but 6 at last second second before the first closing would have put you 3rd and 3rd from bottom so that you would not have been forced to bet more to stay in at the turn re-opening.

6 seems well worth it to get through to river. Even if river betting goes high and you don't think you can win, you are likely to be able to make more betting on folding at river rather than at turn.

@Fion I was def betting on audience because it probably had a better hand than me, even after my replace. Actually, @ChristopherRandles can we see the last Audience card for shits and giggles since it's not our own hands' sensitive info?

@Stralor I don't see why not. But does anyone object to this?

@ChristopherRandles No objection from me.

oops I slept in ahaha

Just over 2.5 hours left with none having the minimum to go through yet.

Jason and Pat both waiting for each other?

I may well be late reopening this if that is needed. Could be 21:30 UTC for reopening or announcing result.

King of Spades was in the game ;)

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