Manifold plays poker Hand 7 - The Deal. Who will win
7
555Ṁ323
resolved Aug 23
100%17%
Pat Scott
13%
Jason
14%
Nickten
10%
Fion
10%
A
21%
Audience
16%
Late Joiner

Who will win? i.e. this market resolves to the winner(s) of the hand equally, (subject to ajustment if there is a ressurection).

To progress players need a minimum net bet of 10 YES mana (not position) on themselves. The last two that meat this minimum may need to bet more to stay in.

The Audience needs double the minimum, but doesn't count NO bets, so totaled YES bets on it of at least 20 will allow it to advance subject to possibility of being forced to bid higher.

The audience hand is 5 spades 6 spades and an unknown card

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Audience 20+5-10+10+3=48 no Nickten is correct it is just 33

Pat Scott 23

Nickten 10+10=20

Jason 5+3+10 =18

Fion 1+10=11

A 10

These all pass the minimum of 10 (20 for audience)

Top two 56, bottom two total 21

56 is less than 3 times 21 So all through.

Pat Scott did buy on all 4 but 2 totalled 5 or less and there were also larger no bets so I am not going to take action on that.

@ChristopherRandles this is not correct. you're counting unfilled created limit orders

@nickten Sorry yes you are right

@ChristopherRandles I definitely cleared my positions and should have spent much more on NO than YES when I was warned. it's not obvious how this works though: when betting on players in the round, do I count? does the audience? late joiner? I assumed YES to all 3 and had to shorten my positions to exclude all the other real players

@Stralor Sorry that wasn't clear and I didn't get an answer to you in time.

My reaction is

You don't count - you are expected to bet on yourself and it does say other players

Late joiner doesn't count if it hasn't become a player at time of bet

Audience is a player but needs bets on yes to get through, so I am allowing bet there so doesn't count.

I have put a reminder in the flop market.

Audience 3+10+20 and Pat Scott 23

nickten 10+10

Jason 10+3+5

Fion 10+1 and A 10

so 56/21=2.67

now we all see the flop?

"you can only bet yes on half of the other players listed for the round" @Stralor

@nickten ah I forgot. can I reverse my bets and still qualify?

I don't think I need resurrected here as all player listed. (hopefully.)

Have fun, cards to be sent shortly.

@ChristopherRandles Did a late joiner join?

@MattCWilson not yet afaik!

@MattCWilson not yet. Are you interested?

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