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https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-7-the-tur-3b81ccbfac9a

Manifold plays poker Hand 7 - The River. Who will win?

Who will win? i.e. this market resolves to the winner(s) of the hand equally, (subject to ajustment if there is a ressurection). To progress players need a minimum net bet of 20 YES mana (not position) on themselves. The last two that meet this minimum may need to bet more to stay in. The Audience needs double the minimum, but doesn't count NO bets, so totaled YES bets on it of at least 40 will allow it to advance (subject to possibility of being forced to bid higher). The audience hand is 5 spades 6 spades and an unknown card [image]The river is King of Spades [image]

OK closed unless anyone want to claim problem was too much of an issue.

112+72 = 184

20+21 = 41

184 > 3* 41 so reopens.

@Fion needs to add 52 to stay in.

@A needs to add 51 to stay in.

@ChristopherRandles I can still push further to move the goalpost, right?

@Stralor You can bet but it makes no difference to amount Fion and A have to place to stay in

@ChristopherRandles 👍

@ChristopherRandles rules did say

"Other players can bet with no effect on who goes through as they wish but rule 2 still prevents you betting yes on more than half the players still potentially in."

@ChristopherRandles I'm sort of responding to your other comment, in the market for the river. You said I only needed 6 to stay in, but here it looks like you said I needed 52. What am I missing?

@Fion After it was reopened it was 52. Before it closed (then reopened) 3rd from bottom was enough and raising 20 to 26 would do that if no-one responded.

I guess we won't use these rules again.

@ChristopherRandles Oh, I see. So did Jason get through on 25? So I was on 20 and if I'd paid 6 more I'd have got onto 26 and then Jason and A would have had the option to pay more to stay in instead of me and A? (Unless one of the others leapfrogged me in turn.)

To be fair, I wasn't paying nearly enough attention to this game. I think I'm inclined to say I didn't like these rules, but as I say, could just have been my lack of attention.

Is everyone ok with close in 7 minutes? Could be a reopening which I will run to 23:30 UTC

While showing 32 trades but something like 118 rows

Pat Scott 112

Jason 25

Fion 20. (40 looks like a duplicate of a 20 transaction)

A 21 ( 42 ditto )

Audience 72

lots of duplicated transactions, wonder if there are any missing.

Trades visible

I am struggling to see trades, just an endless circle. Not sure if this is just me or if others have the problem.

@ChristopherRandles same

@Stralor OK I'll add an hour to close time and may do this again if problem continues unless anyone thinks different action is more appropriate.

I will be playing bridge this evening so may or may not get short break time to examine and reopen if needed. If anyone is able and wants to post what they think the totals are or like such a comment if they agree that may allow me to reopen earlier. Could be a <~21:30 to 23:30 UTC reopening.

@ChristopherRandles we can check players bets on their profiles, but some random person might of bet on The Audience and that could decide who gets to see the River...

can someone check in API ?

A replaced hand. Cards replaced were 2 clubs 8 Diamonds

New side market

Excluding hand winner, who will be most successful bettor?

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-7-excludi

Manifold plays poker hand 7, Excluding hand winner, who will be most successful bettor?

50% chance. Will use leaderboard for Manifold plays poker deducting position after the tournament see comments at https://manifold.markets/Stralor/manifold-plays-poker-who-will-win-h-29002d3c6449 Adding markets unrelated to Manifold plays poker is not permitted and will be removed before settling this question. Resolves with PROB= 100 if Pat Scott does not win hand, but with exception of hand winner, wins most (or loses least) from betting on all Manifold plays poker markets PROB = 80 if Jason (terms as above) PROB = 60 if Nickten (terms as above) PROB - 40 if Fion (terms as above) PROB - 20 if A (terms as above) PROB = 0 if any single other trader (terms as above)

@ChristopherRandles 🤔 not sure that one works terribly well, since profit margins are low and players are bound by proximity on the continuum

@Stralor Yes probably not ideal. But multichoice markets are expensive to create. Perhaps I should have put other and audience in the middle?

Pat Scott replaced 4 Diamonds 5 clubs

More cheats: are Ace of Spades and King of Spades in the game? Public responses are fine

@Stralor The Ace of Spades is not in the game, The King of Spades is in the game.

15 YES mana? supposed to be 20?

@nickten oops yes forgot to change that thank you