Would a Russian missile falling in Romania/Poland count?

@Jwags Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

@CertaintyOfVictory Understood. I'm interested to participate in future monthly markets like this but it would help if you made the article 5 part clear up front. It's in Russia's interest to conduct provocative acts short of triggering article 5 to undermine NATO cohesion, so this is likely to need very unambiguous resolution criteria!

@Jwags It does have unambigious resolution criteria. The market is about an "armed attack" which is an established term regarding the NATO. If NATO is considering it to be an armed attack with reference to Article 5, this market and all the others I made using the same established term will resolve YES.