
Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
15
1kṀ6892029
13%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
16% chance
Will Poland deploy troops to fight in Ukraine by the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
29% chance
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?
38% chance
Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026?
80% chance
Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027?
19% chance
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?
11% chance
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?
10% chance
Will Russia confront USA by the end of 2029?
20% chance