Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
11
129
Ṁ565Ṁ190
2029
11%
chance
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If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.
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@IanThordarson26d5 If a missile has a nuclear warhead (even if it does not detonate), then I will resolve with 'Yes.' On the other hand, a whole volley of conventional missiles designed to overwhelm anti-air defense is needed to resolve with 'Yes.' Single, stray missiles like this one do not count. https://news.yahoo.com/poland-says-russian-missile-crashed-115600838.html
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