Context:

Some Twitter talk that ICC indictments/warrants are imminent. Is this the case?

https://x.com/academic_la/status/1784356899028443333

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1784115614182728163

Fine print:

Resolves Yes if, before May 10th, the International Criminal Court publicly indicts top ranking officer of the IDF, and/or top member of the current Israeli government. Top is a bit ambiguous, but this will not doubt resolves Yes if Bibi and/or Gallant are indicted. General-level IDF personel also resolves Yes. If somehow this is only medium-level people that are indicted, resolves however I feel like based on how important I think they are (though I think that's unlikely) +. And resolves No otherwise on May 10th (GMT+1). Exact content of indictment does not matter for this market, including alleged violations, only that it's an indictment and from the ICC. Resolves No if it's confidential and not revealed before May 10th. Resolves Yes if it is confidential but leaks from a highly reliable source.