What Event Will Happen First: Jimmy Carter Passes OR A Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? [Unlinked Market]
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Jimmy Carter, 99, Is No Longer Awake Every Day, Grandson Says: 'He's Experiencing the World as Best He Can'
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Netanyahu authorizes negotiators to enter detailed talks for ceasefire deal with Hamas
Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict. @traders
@traders Hamas denies it has withdrawn from hostage-truce talks after latest Israeli attacks
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Jimmy Carter says he hopes to vote for Kamala Harris -CNN
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It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond
Israel said to agree in principle to Lebanon ceasefire offer, though some issues remain (Its Not Hamas, But Shows A Ceasefire May Be Possible)
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Hamas and Israel ‘are talking seriously’ about a hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, source says
65%
Jimmy Carter Passes
35%
Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire

What Event Will Happen First: Jimmy Carter Passes OR A Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire?

Resolves "Jimmy Carter" If He Passes Before A Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire Criteria Is Not Met.

Resolves "Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire" Criteria Is Met Before Jimmy Carter Passes.

To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:

  • Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas

  • Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

  • Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

  • Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

  • MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET


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IT'S 50/50 EITHER IT HAPPENS OR IT DOESN'T

As for the "lasting" definition, does the market resolve based on the day a ceasefire makes it to 10 days? Or when the 10 days begins?

@Quroe If all requirements are met, than it would resolve yes at 240 hours 1 second as that would satisfy the 10 minimum days.

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Even with a long and full life at 100 I'm not going to bet any markets that win on a named person's death. I hope that Jimmy Carter and I both live to see a lasting ceasefire.

bought Ṁ212 YES

I wonder if the latest hit (and the rumors that sinwar hardly communicates with anyone anymore) have made their leadership actually uncoordinated.

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Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework

President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict.

@traders

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Upgraded to a PLUS market

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Subsidy @ 6k

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Looks like there has been 5,700 Mana Subsidy total added since market creation.

Why do so many markets involve Jimmy Carter dying?

@JaesonBooker I don't know, but...

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