[Metaculus] Before July, will the ICC issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant or Halevi?
Jul 2

Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if before July 1, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as No otherwise.

  • Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)

  • Yoav Gallant (Defense Minister)

  • Herzi Halevi (IDF Chief of Staff)

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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I voted no because I think that the court will take longer to discuss the case due to article 17 / principle of complementarity.

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