Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve Yes if any member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force is charged by the International Criminal Court before January 1, 2027 for any crime in relation to Isreal's military actions in Gaza following Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7th 2023.

Per the Rome Statute—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following categories:

• Genocide

• Crimes against humanity

• War crimes

• Crimes of aggression

• Offences against the administration of justice

The ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.