Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
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Resoles YES if the ICC issues the warrant and it is considered active before the end of 2024.

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Seems like Ground News was about 1 hour late on the push notification for this one for me.

@jack Kinda funny that a court so inept it doesn't even know Mohammed Deif is dead claims to have enough facts to arrest a head of state.

@ShakedKoplewitz presumably this is a testament to how ridiculously slow they are at completing the paperwork needed lol

@ShakedKoplewitz Thanks, that was a good read :)

So since Israel isn't actually a signatory to the ICC, isn't this just a random dutch group threatening a foreign head of state? Which would be an act of war by the netherlands (or whoever's jurisdiction the ICC falls into) if they actually try to enforce it.

bought แน€32 YES

@ShakedKoplewitz afaik that's how the US considers it

@dgga Hague invasion act UwU

He is the only initially named individual still a live player in the conflict. Makes it more likely maybe?

In today's unsurprising news: ICC prosecutor attacking Israel is himself a rapist

https://www.timesofisrael.com/icc-chief-seeking-arrest-warrant-for-netanyahu-facing-sexual-misconduct-accusations/

@ShakedKoplewitz No mention of 'rape' in your source. Either way, not relevant to the market since it is not conditioned on ICC chief having sexual misconduct accusations last i checked.

@Ammar nope, just pointing it out since some people downthread seemed to be working under the mistake that this is a legitimate court. I think "the guy had severe sexual misconduct allegations come out right when he suddenly decided to start making bizarre politically polarizing moves that distracted from them" is pretty relevant.

bought แน€500 YES from 45% to 47%

@ShakedKoplewitz Nah, seperate the art (ruling) from the artist (judge). Also the decision is politically polarizing exclusively in Israel and USA.

@MADGAMBLER6969 The prosecutor (not judge) completely ignored a lot of the court's rules in doing this (No evidence of a crime, Israel isn't a signatory, Israel has internal systems for judging war crimes, he's supposed to work with local authorities to gather evidence first... each of these should have been enough to be disqualifying independently). It's why even the (pretty biased) court hasn't given him any of the warrants he wanted so far.

Him being a rapist is relevant both in the tactical level (if he was trying to distract from his own behavior, stirring this kind of controversy so that he can accuse anyone who believes the accusition of being a jew mossad-sent PR agent). And just in general, antizionists kinda have to be rape apologists, and this is one more example of that.

bought แน€10 YES at 48%

@ShakedKoplewitz
> anti[my ideology]ists kinda have to be [horrendous crime] apologists, and this is one more example of that
Are you sure you aren't in a bubble, it's a pretty hardcore statement to just throw around.

@MADGAMBLER6969 Palestinians livestreamed themselves raping women to death and paraded their corpses to mobs who spit on them down the street (and this was their mainstream, not a fringe extremist group the mainstream disapproves of). There's shades of "Gaza is bad but..." That don't require this, but outright being pro-palestinian does in fact require being an apologist for this behavior.

@ShakedKoplewitz Palestinians did not livestream themselves raping women to death.

@Shai But the IDF certainly livestreams themselves demolishing empty buildings - as in โ€œterroristโ€ free - across the entirety of Gaza. The Israelis are acting with desperation. Only in America is it even controversial to say these things. That wonโ€™t last.

@Shai Sorry, technically they didn't stream that part of the video, only the part where they dragged their corpses down the street for the mobs to spit on afterwards.

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